ObjectivePatients who have prolonged stay in intensive care unit (ICU) are associated with adverse outcomes. Such patients have cost implications and can lead to shortage of ICU beds. We aimed to develop a preoperative risk prediction tool for prolonged ICU stay following coronary artery surgery (CABG).Methods5,186 patients who underwent CABG between 1st April 1997 and 31st March 2002 were analysed in a development dataset. Logistic regression was used with forward stepwise technique to identify preoperative risk factors for prolonged ICU stay; defined as patients staying longer than 3 days on ICU. Variables examined included presentation history, co-morbidities, catheter and demographic details. The use of cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) was also recorded. The prediction tool was tested on validation dataset (1197 CABG patients between 1st April 2003 and 31st March 2004). The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was calculated to assess the performance of the prediction tool.Results475(9.2%) patients had a prolonged ICU stay in the development dataset. Variables identified as risk factors for a prolonged ICU stay included renal dysfunction, unstable angina, poor ejection fraction, peripheral vascular disease, obesity, increasing age, smoking, diabetes, priority, hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension, and use of CPB. In the validation dataset, 8.1% patients had a prolonged ICU stay compared to 8.7% expected. The ROC curve for the development and validation datasets was 0.72 and 0.74 respectively.ConclusionA prediction tool has been developed which is reliable and valid. The tool is being piloted at our institution to aid resource management.

Myocardial ischemic arrest, using a cold crystalloid cardioplegic solution, decreases intracellular concentrations of glutamate (from 6.2 +/- 0.5 to 4.5 +/- 0.45 micromol/g wet weight, n = 19, P < 0.05) and ATP (from 3.0 +/- 0.4 to 1.9 +/- 0.3 micromol/g wet weight, n = 9, P < 0.05) but not aspartate. After 20 min of normothermic reperfusion, the fall in glutamate and ATP was maintained (4.5 +/- 0.52 and 2.0 +/- 0.2 micromol/g wet weight, respectively), and there was a fall in aspartate (from 1.32 +/- 0.12 to 0.9 +/- 0.1 micromol/g wet weight). Myocardial arrest with cold blood cardioplegic solution did not cause a significant fall in tissue ATP, glutamate, or aspartate. However, after reperfusion all three fell significantly. With the exception of a fall in tissue valine during ischemia with cold crystalloid cardioplegic solution and a rise in alanine during ischemia with cold blood cardioplegic solution, there were no significant changes in tissue alanine, valine, leucine, or isoleucine during ischemia or after reperfusion using crystalloid or blood cardioplegic solutions. This work documents the changes in the intracellular concentrations of important metabolites in the hearts of patients undergoing coronary artery surgery using different myocardial protection techniques.

Objective To study the "learning curve" associated with independent practice in coronary artery surgery. Design Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. Setting All NHS centres in north west England that carry out cardiac surgery in adults. Participants 18 913 patients undergoing coronary artery surgery for the first time between April 1997 and March 2003, 5678 of whom were operated on by 15 surgeons in the first four years after their consultant appointment. Main outcome measures Observed and predicted mortality (EuroSCORE) for surgeons in their first, second, third, and fourth years after appointment as a consultant compared with figures for established surgeons. Results Overall mortality decreased over the six years of study (P = 0.01). Of the patients operated on by established surgeons or newly appointed consultants, 265/13 235 (2.0%) and 109/5678 (1.9%), respectively, died (P = 0.71). There was a progressive decrease in observed mortality with time after appointment as a consultant from 2.2% in the first year to 1.2% in the fourth year (P = 0.049). This result remained significant after adjustment for time and case mix (P = 0.019). Conclusions Mortality in patients operated on by newly appointed consultant surgeons is similar to mortality in patients operated on by established surgeons. There are significant decreases in crude and risk adjusted mortality in the four years after appointment. These findings should influence the nature of practice in newly appointed surgeons.

The data suggest that warm blood hyperkalaemic reperfusion hot shot prevents myocardial metabolic derangement seen during coronary artery surgery.