Contemporary prognostic equations in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) derived from US and French cohorts may not perform as well in the UK as a locally derived scoring scheme. The aim of the study was to develop and validate a UK risk score to predict prognosis in PAH.Baseline mortality predictors identified by multivariate Cox analysis in 182 incident PAH patients were used to derive the Scottish composite score (SCS). Its prognostic performance in an independent UK cohort was compared with the French registry and Pulmonary Hypertension Connection (PHC) registry equations using Brier scores (BS).The SCS based on age, sex, aetiology, right atrial pressure, cardiac output and 6-min walk distance predicted survival in the validation cohort (hazard ratio (HR) 1.7 per point increase; p,0.001) and provided further prognostic stratification in World Health Organization (WHO) functional class III patients (HR 1.8 per point increase; p,0.001). It was more accurate than the French registry equation in predicting 1-yr survival (BS: 0.092 versus 0.146; p50.001) and 2-yr survival (0.131 versus 0.255; p,0.001). There was no significant difference in BS between the SCS and PHC registry equation.The SCS predicts survival and can be used to supplement WHO functional class in prognostication.

The United Kingdom National Review of Asthma Deaths (NRAD) recommends that patients who require ≥3 courses of oral corticosteroids (OCS) for exacerbations in the past year or those on British Thoracic Society (BTS) Step 4/5 treatment must be referred to a specialist asthma service. The aim of the study was to identify the proportion of asthma patients in primary care that fulfil NRAD criteria for specialist referral and factors associated with frequent exacerbations. A total of 2639 adult asthma patients from 10 primary care practices in Glasgow, UK were retrospectively studied between 2014 and 2015. Frequent exacerbators and short-acting β2-agonist (SABA) over-users were identified if they received ≥2 confirmed OCS courses for asthma and ≥13 SABA inhalers in the past year, respectively. Community dispensing data were used to assess treatment adherence defined as taking ≥75% of prescribed inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) dose. The study population included 185 (7%) frequent exacerbators, 137 (5%) SABA over-users, and 319 (12%) patients on BTS Step 4/5 treatment. Among frequent exacerbators, 41% required BTS Step 4/5 treatment, 46% had suboptimal ICS adherence, 42% had not attended an asthma review in the past year and 42% had no previous input from a specialist asthma service. Older age, female gender, BTS Step 4/5, SABA over-use and co-existing COPD diagnosis increased the risk of frequent exacerbations independently. Fourteen per 100 asthma patients would fulfil the NRAD criteria for specialist referral. Better collaboration between primary and secondary care asthma services is needed to improve chronic asthma care.

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