Although many studies have investigated the effects of forest cover on streamflow and runoff, and several have examined the effects of canopy density on snowpack accumulation, the impacts of forest canopy density on spatial patterns of snowmelt input to catchments remain relatively underquantified. We performed an intensive snow depth and density survey during maximum accumulation in a mid-latitude montane environment in northern New Mexico, taking 900 snow depth measurements and excavating six snow pits across a continuum of canopy densities. Snow water equivalent (SWE) data are correlated with forest canopy density (R 2 D 0Ð21, p < 0Ð0001), with maximum snow accumulation in forests with density between 25 and 40%. Forest edges are shown to be highly influential on patterns of snow depth, with unforested areas shaded by forest to their immediate south holding approximately 25% deeper snow than either large open areas or densely forested areas. This indicates that the combination of canopy influences on throughfall and snowpack shading are key processes underlying snow distribution in the high solar load environments typical of mountainous, mid-latitude areas. We further show that statistical models of snow distribution are improved with the addition of remotely sensed forest canopy information (R 2 increased in 10 of 11 cases, deviance lowered in 9 of 11 cases), making these findings broadly relevant for improving estimation of water resources, predicting the ecohydrological implications of vegetation and climate change, and informing integrated forest and water resources management.

[1] Changes in both climate and vegetation may dramatically impact the amount of water stored in seasonal snow cover and the timing of spring snowmelt. This study quantifies how spatial variability in solar radiation affects the spatial and temporal patterns in snow water equivalent (SWE), snow chemistry, and snow water isotopes in the Jemez Mountains, New Mexico. Depth, density, stratigraphy, temperature, and snow samples were collected approximately monthly from five locations between January and April 2007 to quantify the effects of solar forcing on snowpack water and chemical balance. Locations varied in solar forcing due to topography and vegetation, while minimizing variability in precipitation, elevation, aspect, interception, and wind redistribution. Snowfall (340 ± 5 mm) was similar across all sites, but peak SWE at maximum accumulation ranged from 187 to 340 mm. Solute concentrations were highest directly under canopies, intermediate in nonshaded forest openings, and lowest in shaded forest openings. Conservative solute concentrations (SO 4 2− , R 2 = 0.80), Cl − (R 2 = 0.60), and isotope values (d 18 O R 2 = 0.96) were inversely related to SWE at maximum accumulation. Mass balance estimates of snowpack water balance using solute concentrations and isotopes indicated that sublimation ranged from <2% to ∼20% of winter precipitation, consistent with previous studies at the site. The strong relationships between solar forcing, SWE, and chemistry suggest that snow chemistry at maximum accumulation can be used to estimate overwinter sublimation. Furthermore, variability in solar forcing also can be used to refine spatial estimates of catchment solute and isotope input at melt.

This article has been republished with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article. Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Sea-level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2 ˚C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5) we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2 ˚C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR.

The US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is currently looking at variable temporal and geographic scales for total water level and event loading projections including storm description and characterisation relevant to project design and performance. USACE projects and event description must transition from engineering to planning to economics and project management. Capturing and articulating the appropriate level of uncertainty is important to a realistic projection of resultant risk. Close collaboration with national and international experts is an essential component in USACE's process of developing practical, nationally consistent, and cost-effective measures to reduce potential vulnerabilities resulting from global changes. The USACE's approach to developing guidance for evaluating and adapting to sea level change and total water level assessment are good examples of this collaboration. A primary focus at this time is the examination of methods and tools available at graduated levels of a project study. For project-level use, the USACE is defining specific assessments of components of total water level in addition to their varying impacts on project stability and performance. The required planning and risk assessment products for each performance type will be explained. The goal is to project adequately and cost-effectively future climate contributors that can result in various levels of project non-performance in a manner that will support effective long-term planning and project expenditures.