Generating an integrated conceptual probabilistic model forecast for exploration of hydrocarbon fields is essential to the decision-making process when developing a strong portfolio of exploration prospects. It is important not only when considering the potential volume that could be discovered within each prospect, but also when considering drilling plans for extracting these reserves. It is important to both define the best strategies for achieving strong growth and sustainable profit over time and to consider possible risks and uncertainties that could impact such results. Southeast of Lake Maracaibo, the most important axis of production growth is located within the western part of Venezuela, formed by the Ceiba, Tomoporo and Franquera fields, where a set of exploratory prospects comprise 36 potential reservoirs. Exploratory wells are planned to validate the estimated reserves of the development to help increase oil production. The optimization and prioritization of exploration prospects provides the foundation for creating an interactive workflow that is automated, versatile, and innovative to help optimize the portfolio of the defined prospects. This workflow provides a strategy based on the generation and use of a probabilistic conceptual reservoir model based on information from neighboring fields and exploratory studies. Using this approach, the initial potential for each well and each of the prospects' different production profiles can be probabilistically calculated based on the development strategy. This allows visualization of how many wells should be drilled, the capabilities of the surface facilities, the number of personnel required to operate the field, and other additional important aspects. This conceptual probabilistic model forecast (prospects—wells—surface) is connected to an economic-risk-uncertainty model, creating fully integrated modeling. When new information is gained, automated adjustments can be made, thus achieving quick optimal viewing of opportunities within the portfolio of prospects and improving decision making.
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