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In a prospective cohort study, we assessed whether changes in total cell counts and differentiation and interleukin-6 (IL-6), IL-8, and monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) concentrations in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) are associated with a higher risk to develop obliterative bronchiolitis (OB). We investigated 60 lung transplant patients (follow-up of 2 to 8 yr) with either histologic evidence of OB within 1 yr after lung transplantation (n = 19) or no pathology, good outcome (GO) for at least 24 mo and well-preserved lung function, i.e., FEV > or = 80% of baseline (n = 41). Median time between lung transplantation and the first BAL was 42 d for the GO group and 41 d for the OB group (p > 0.05). In the bronchial fraction, median total cell counts (0.06 x 10(3)/ml versus 0.04 x 10(3)/ml), lymphocyte (9 x 10(3)/ml versus 2 x 10(3)/ml), and eosinophilic granulocyte counts (1 x 10(3)/ml versus 0) were significantly higher in the OB group than in the GO group (p < 0.05). In the alveolar fraction, this was the case for the median value of neutrophilic granulocyte counts (19 x 10(3)/ml versus 4 x 10(3)/ml), respectively. Median values of IL-6 and IL-8 concentrations in both bronchial (IL-6: 23 versus 6 pg/ml, IL-8: 744 versus 102 pg/ml) and alveolar fractions (IL-6: 13 versus 3 pg/ml, IL-8: 110 versus 30 pg/ml) of the BALF were significantly higher in the OB group than in the GO group. By means of logistic regression, we showed that higher total cell, neutrophilic granulocyte, and lymphocyte counts, the presence of eosinophilic granulocytes, and higher concentrations of IL-6 and IL-8 were significantly associated with an increased risk to develop OB. We conclude that monitoring cell counts, neutrophilic and eosinophilic granulocytes, IL-6, and IL-8 in BALF within 2 mo after lung transplantation in addition to the transbronchial lung biopsy (TBB) pathology will contribute to a better identification and management of the group of patients at risk for developing OB within a year.