The evaluation of uncertainty is relatively new in environmental life-cycle assessment (LCA). It provides useful information to assess the reliability of LCA-based decisions and to guide future research toward reducing uncertainty. Most uncertainty studies in LCA quantify only one type of uncertainty, i.e., uncertainty due to input data (parameter uncertainty). However, LCA outcomes can also be uncertain due to normative choices (scenario uncertainty) and the mathematical models involved (model uncertainty). The present paper outlines a new methodology that quantifies parameter, scenario, and model uncertainty simultaneously in environmental life-cycle assessment. The procedure is illustrated in a case study that compares two insulation options for a Dutch one-family dwelling. Parameter uncertainty was quantified by means of Monte Carlo simulation. Scenario and model uncertainty were quantified by resampling different decision scenarios and model formulations, respectively. Although scenario and model uncertainty were not quantified comprehensively, the results indicate that both types of uncertainty influence the case study outcomes. This stresses the importance of quantifying parameter, scenario, and model uncertainty simultaneously. The two insulation options studied were found to have significantly different impact scores for global warming, stratospheric ozone depletion, and eutrophication. The thickest insulation option has the lowest impact on global warming and eutrophication, and the highest impact on stratospheric ozone depletion.
Link to publication Citation for published version (APA):Gilijamse, W., & Boonstra, M. E. (1995). Energy efficiency in new houses -heat demand reduction versus cogeneration. Energy and buildings, 23(1), 49-62. DOI: 10.1016/0378-7788(95) 00918-N General rightsIt is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), other than for strictly personal, individual use, unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons). Disclaimer/Complaints regulationsIf you believe that digital publication of certain material infringes any of your rights or (privacy) interests, please let the Library know, stating your reasons. In case of a legitimate complaint, the Library will make the material inaccessible and/or remove it from the website. Please Ask the Library: http://uba.uva.nl/en/contact, or a letter to: Library of the University of Amsterdam, Secretariat, Singel 425, 1012 WP Amsterdam, The Netherlands. You will be contacted as soon as possible. Heat demand reductior~ and cogeneration are two main options to reduce fuel consumption for space heating and warm tapwater in buildings. This article compares fuel saving and costs of these two options for the case of new Dutch houses. In the calculations, simulation techniques are used to account for diurnal and seasonal variations of both the heat demand level and the operational conditions of cogeneration. The use of a short term thermal storage is considered in order to match heat supply and demand. Hewt demand reduction and cogeneration appear to have a considerable fuel saving potential in new Dutch houses. At present Dutch natural gas prices both options are not cost-effective. However, expected investment cost reductions and energy taxes that are under consideration may eliminate this hindrance. These developments would also open possibilities towards combinations of heat demand reduction and cogeneration. Such combinations could make a large contribution to fuel consumption reduction goals in The Netherlands.
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