Two paroxysmal explosions occurred at Stromboli volcano in the Summer 2019, the first of which, on July 3, caused one fatality and some injuries. Within the 56 days between the two paroxysmal explosions, effusive activity from vents located in the summit area of the volcano occurred. No significant changes in routinely monitored parameters were detected before the paroxysmal explosions. However, we have calculated the polarization and the fractal dimension time series of the seismic signals from November 15, 2018 to September 15, 2019 and we have recognized variations that preceded the paroxysmal activity. In addition, we have defined a new parameter, based on RSAM estimation, related to the Very Long Period events, called VLP size, by means of which we have noticed significant variations through the whole month preceding the paroxysm of July 3. In the short term, we have analyzed the signals of a borehole strainmeter installed on the island, obtaining automatic triggers 10 minutes and 7.5 minutes before the July 3 and the August 28 paroxysms, respectively. The results of this study highlight mid-term seismic precursors of paroxysmal activity and provide valuable evidence for the development of an early warning system for paroxysmal explosions based on strainmeter measurements. Stromboli (Aeolian Archipelago, Italy) is an open conduit volcano with persistent explosive activity. It is located in the Mediterranean Sea, not far from the coasts of Sicily and Calabria (Fig. 1). The persistent explosive Strombolian activity consists of several hundred of moderate-intensity events per day. Typical Strombolian explosions eject pyroclastic fragments at the height of some tens of meters, which fall a short distance from the eruptive vent. Explosions occur in numerous eruptive vents located in the summit area of the volcano that can change over time both in number and position. However, the eruptive vents can be grouped into three areas (Fig. 1), northeast (NE), central (C) and southwest (SW), and are distributed along the dominant structural direction (NE-SW) of a graben-like collapsed area at the top of the volcanic edifice 1-3. Major explosions 4,5 eject pyroclastic material over a hundred meters high, which can fall outside the crater terrace in the area visited by tourists. The frequency of these phenomena varies in time, with an average of 2 events per year 5-7. Paroxysms, violent explosions that produce eruptive columns more than 3 km high and are often accompanied by pyroclastic flows, can also occur at Stromboli 8-13. Ballistic blocks associated with these explosions can reach up to 2 m in diameter. Strombolian paroxysms are rare and their occurrence frequency varies over time.

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This article presents findings from two episodes of seismicity and gas emission that occurred on 7 October 2015 and 6 December 2019 in Campi Flegrei caldera. This caldera has been affected by long-term unrest since 2004. The 6 December 2019 episode, consisting of a swarm of 38 earthquakes (maximum duration magnitude 3.1, the largest between 1984 and March 2020), occurred at the end of a one month period characterized by an increase in the ground uplift rate from 0.19±0.01 to 0.72±0.05  mm/day. A sudden increase in the fumarolic tremor amplitude, which is a proxy of gas emission-related parameters recorded at Solfatara–Pisciarelli hydrothermal area (e.g., CO2 air concentration), was observed during the seismicity episode. The uplift rate decreased immediately after the swarm (0.10±0.01  mm/day), whereas the fumarolic tremor amplitude remained higher than that observed prior to the swarm. Through analyzing the time series of uplift recorded in Pozzuoli (central area of the caldera) from differential measurements on tide gauges, we were able to identify the 2015 episode. This episode was characterized by increasing uplift rates that culminated in a seismic swarm of 33 earthquakes on 7 October, which was followed by decreasing uplift rates. We computed double-difference locations of earthquakes from the two swarms and found that they located along a conduit-like path, coinciding with a high-resistivity contrast zone, previously identified by audiomagnetotelluric measurements. The focal mechanisms of the major earthquakes of both swarms indicate fault planes radial with respect to the maximum uplift area. These phenomena can be interpreted as episodes of the volcanic and (or) hydrothermal system pressurization that culminate in an injection of fluids along the conduit-like path, which behaves as a valve that allows fluid discharge and the temporary depressurization of the source region.

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Within a general volcanic unrest in the densely urbanized area of Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) an increase in the activity of Pisciarelli hydrothermal area is occurring. The seismic amplitude of Pisciarelli fumarolic tremor is a proxy for the fluid emission rate of the entire Solfatara‐Pisciarelli hydrothermal system. The long‐term analysis indicates a significant increase, by a factor of ~3 of the fumarolic tremor amplitude since May 2017. This increment matches with the trend of geochemical and seismic parameters observed in Campi Flegrei, therefore highlighting that Pisciarelli is a key site to monitor the volcanic unrest underway in this high‐risk caldera. The analysis of data from three closely spaced seismic stations provided new clues about the source mechanism of the tremor. Analyzing the fumarolic tremor amplitude we could also identify an episode of enlargement of the emission area close to the main fumarole of Pisciarelli. We propose a monitoring system based on the fumarolic tremor analysis, which provides real‐time information on the Pisciarelli hydrothermal activity and therefore on the current unrest in Campi Flegrei caldera.