This paper describes a new indirect technique for deriving population-based estimates of maternal mortality. The technique, called the "sisterhood method," is relevant to developing countries where the alternative data sources and approaches to estimation are often inadequate and inappropriate. The sisterhood method uses the proportions of adult sisters dying during pregnancy, childbirth, or the puerperium reported by adults during a census or survey, to derive a variety of indicators of maternal mortality. The first field trial of the method was carried out in the North Bank Division of The Gambia, West Africa, in 1987. The results indicate a lifetime risk of maternal mortality of 0.0584, or 1 in 17, approximating a maternal mortality ratio of 1,005 per 100,000 live births, which is consistent with previous estimates for this region.

Summary The development of techniques of population prediction is outlined and the basic principles discussed. The need for the recognition of the sub‐classifications within which the trends of population components are consistent and interpretable is emphasised and also the importance of substantive as opposed to formal investigation of demographic movements. Accounts are given of recent research, relevant to prediction, in the mathematical description of mortality, nuptiality and fertility by age and duration variables. A systematic scheme for applying time relational models in this way is developed. The place of cohort methods is examined and it is concluded that their standard use for extrapolation of the level of fertility into the future is not justified in conditions similar to those in England and Wales. A procedure of cyclic projection of time period measures is proposed as an alternative.

No abstract

No abstract

No abstract