Abstract:We report a previously-unexplored natural temperature cycle recorded in ice cores from Antarctica-the Antarctic Centennial Oscillation (ACO)-that has oscillated for at least the last 226 millennia. Here we document the properties of the ACO and provide an initial assessment of its role in global climate. We analyzed open-source databases of stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen as proxies for paleo-temperatures. We find that centennial-scale spectral peaks from temperature-proxy records at Vostok over the last 10,000 years occur at the same frequencies (±2.4%) in three other paleoclimate records from drill sites distributed widely across the East Antarctic Plateau (EAP), and >98% of individual ACOs evaluated at Vostok match 1:1 with homologous cycles at the other three EAP drill sites and conversely. Identified ACOs summate with millennial periodicity to form the Antarctic Isotope Maxima (AIMs) known to precede Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) oscillations recorded in Greenland ice cores. Homologous ACOs recorded at the four EAP drill sites during the last glacial maximum appeared first at lower elevations nearest the ocean and centuries later on the high EAP, with latencies that exceed dating uncertainty >30-fold. ACO homologs at different drill sites became synchronous, however, during the warmer Holocene. Comparative spectral analysis suggests that the millennial-scale AIM cycle declined in period from 1500 to 800 years over the last 70 millennia. Similarly, over the last 226 millennia ACO repetition period (mean 352 years) declined by half while amplitude (mean 0.67 • C) approximately doubled. The period and amplitude of ACOs oscillate in phase with glacial cycles and related surface insolation associated with planetary orbital forces. We conclude that the ACO: encompasses at least the EAP; is the proximate source of D-O oscillations in the Northern Hemisphere; therefore affects global temperature; propagates with increased velocity as temperature increases; doubled in intensity over geologic time; is modulated by global temperature variations associated with planetary orbital cycles; and is the probable paleoclimate precursor of the contemporary Antarctic Oscillation (AAO). Properties of the ACO/AAO are capable of explaining the current global warming signal.

We report a natural wind cycle, the Antarctic Centennial Wind Oscillation (ACWO), whose properties explain milestones of climate and human civilization, including contemporary global warming. We explored the wind/temperature relationship in Antarctica over the past 226 millennia using dust flux in ice cores from the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) Dome C (EDC) drill site as a wind proxy and stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen in ice cores from EDC and ten additional Antarctic drill sites as temperature proxies. The ACWO wind cycle is coupled 1:1 with the temperature cycle of the Antarctic Centennial Oscillation (ACO), the paleoclimate precursor of the contemporary Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), at all eleven drill sites over all time periods evaluated. Such tight coupling suggests that ACWO wind cycles force ACO/AAO temperature cycles. The ACWO is modulated in phase with the millennial-scale Antarctic Isotope Maximum (AIM) temperature cycle. Each AIM cycle encompasses several ACWOs that increase in frequency and amplitude to a Wind Terminus, the last and largest ACWO of every AIM cycle. This historic wind pattern, and the heat and gas exchange it forces with the Southern Ocean (SO), explains climate milestones including the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. Contemporary global warming is explained by venting of heat and carbon dioxide from the SO forced by the maximal winds of the current positive phase of the ACO/AAO cycle. The largest 20 human civilizations of the past four millennia collapsed during or near the Little Ice Age or its earlier recurrent homologs. The Eddy Cycle of sunspot activity oscillates in phase with the AIM temperature cycle and therefore may force the internal climate cycles documented here. Climate forecasts based on the historic ACWO wind pattern project imminent global cooling and in ~4 centuries a recurrent homolog of the Little Ice Age. Our study provides a theoretically-unified explanation of contemporary global warming and other climate milestones based on natural climate cycles driven by the Sun, confirms a dominant role for climate in shaping human history, invites reconsideration of climate policy, and offers a method to project future climate.

The Antarctic Centennial Oscillation (ACO) is a paleoclimate temperature cycle that originates in the Southern Hemisphere, is the presumptive evolutionary precursor of the contemporary Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), and teleconnects to the Northern Hemisphere to influence global temperature. In this study we investigate the internal climate dynamics of the ACO over the last 21 millennia using stable water isotopes frozen in ice cores from 11 Antarctic drill sites as temperature proxies. Spectral and time series analyses reveal that ACOs occurred at all 11 sites over all time periods evaluated, suggesting that the ACO encompasses all of Antarctica. From the Last Glacial Maximum through the Last Glacial Termination (LGT), ACO cycles propagated on a multicentennial time scale from the East Antarctic coastline clockwise around Antarctica in the streamline of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). The velocity of teleconnection (VT) is correlated with the geophysical characteristics of drill sites, including distance from the ocean and temperature. During the LGT, the VT to coastal sites doubled while the VT to inland sites decreased fourfold, correlated with increasing solar insolation at 65°N. These results implicate two interdependent mechanisms of teleconnection, oceanic and atmospheric, and suggest possible physical mechanisms for each. During the warmer Holocene, ACOs arrived synchronously at all drill sites examined, suggesting that the VT increased with temperature. Backward extrapolation of ACO propagation direction and velocity places its estimated geographic origin in the Southern Ocean east of Antarctica, in the region of the strongest sustained surface wind stress over any body of ocean water on Earth. ACO period is correlated with all major cycle parameters except cycle symmetry, consistent with a forced, undamped oscillation in which the driving energy affects all major cycle metrics. Cycle period and symmetry are not discernibly different for the ACO and AAO over the same time periods, suggesting that they are the same climate cycle. We postulate that the ACO/AAO is generated by relaxation oscillation of Westerly Wind velocity forced by the equator-to-pole temperature gradient and propagated regionally by identified air-sea-ice interactions.