Objective: Sobriety checkpoints have strong empirical and theoretical support as an intervention to reduce alcohol-involved motor vehicle crashes. The purpose of this study was to examine whether checkpoint size (the number of police officers) and checkpoint duration (the amount of time in operation) affect associations between individual checkpoints and subsequent alcohol-related crash incidence.Method: Queensland Police Service provided latitude-longitude coordinates and date and time data for all breath tests that occurred in Brisbane, Australia, from January 2012 to June 2018. We applied hierarchical cluster analysis to the latitude-longitude coordinates for breath tests, identifying checkpoints as clusters of ≥25 breath tests conducted by ≥3 breath testing devices over a duration of 3 to 8 hours. Generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GLARMA) models related counts of alcoholinvolved motor vehicle crashes to the number of checkpoints conducted per week, as well as 1 week prior and 2 weeks prior.Results: A total of 3420 alcohol-related crashes occurred and 2069 checkpoints were conducted in Brisbane over the 6.5-year (339-week) study period. On average, checkpoints included a mean of 266.0 breath tests (SD = 216.3), 16.4 devices (SD = 13.7), and were 286.3 minutes in duration (SD = 104.2). Each 10 additional checkpoints were associated with a 12% decrease in crash incidence at a lag of 1 week (IRR = 0.88; 95%CI: 0.80, 0.97). We detected no differential associations according to checkpoint size or duration.Conclusions: Sobriety checkpoints are associated with fewer alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes for around 1 week. Checkpoint size and duration do not appear to affect this relationship.
Background and Aims Sobriety checkpoints are an effective strategy to reduce alcohol‐impaired driving, motor vehicle crashes, injuries and fatalities. The aim of this study was to identify the geographic extent over which individual sobriety checkpoints affect alcohol‐impaired driving. Design, Setting, Participants Spatial ecological panel analysis using geolocated breath test data from the Queensland Police Service, Australia, for January 2012 to June 2018. Data were aggregated over 338 weeks within 528 Statistical Area level 2 (SA2) units (n = 178 464 SA2‐weeks) and 84 Statistical Area level 3 (SA3) units (n = 28 392 SA3‐weeks). SA2 units in Queensland contain a mean population of 8883.5 (SD = 55 018.3) and encompass 468.9 roadway kilometers (SD = 1490.0); SA3 units contain a mean population of 57 201.6 (SD = 29521.6) and encompass 2936.0 roadway kilometers (SD = 7025.0). Measurements Independent measures were the density of sobriety checkpoints conducted per 500 roadway kilometers within local and spatially adjacent space–time units. The dependent measure was the rate of tests that detected breath alcohol concentration (a proxy for blood alcohol concentration [BAC]) greater than the legal maximum value of 0.05% for fully licensed drivers in Queensland. Bayesian hierarchical spatial negative binomial models‐related sobriety checkpoints to the rate of breath tests with BAC ≥ 0.05% within and between space–time units. Findings One additional sobriety checkpoint conducted per 500 roadway kilometers was associated with 2.5% reduction in the rate of breath tests with BAC ≥ 0.05% within local SA2 units (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.975; 95% credibility interval (CrI): 0.973–0.978), and with 5.5% reduction in the rate of breath tests with BAC ≥ 0.05% within local SA3 units (IRR = 0.945; 95%CrI: 0.937–0.953). Associations were attenuated towards null in spatially adjacent units and in temporally lagged units (e.g. SA3‐weeks; adjacent lagged 1 week: IRR = 0.969; 95%CrI: 0.937–1.003). Conclusions Individual sobriety checkpoints appear to be associated with reductions in nearby alcohol‐impaired driving. Relationships decay after approximately 1 week and beyond local areas containing approximately 60 000 residents and 3000 kilometers of roadway.
Prolonging survival in good health is a fundamental societal goal. However, the leading determinants of disability-free survival in healthy older people have not been well established. Data from ASPREE, a bi-national placebo-controlled trial of aspirin with 4.7 years median follow-up, was analysed. At enrolment, participants were healthy and without prior cardiovascular events, dementia or persistent physical disability. Disability-free survival outcome was defined as absence of dementia, persistent disability or death. Selection of potential predictors from amongst 25 biomedical, psychosocial and lifestyle variables including recognized geriatric risk factors, utilizing a machine-learning approach. Separate models were developed for men and women. The selected predictors were evaluated in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model and validated internally by bootstrapping. We included 19,114 Australian and US participants aged ≥65 years (median 74 years, IQR 71.6–77.7). Common predictors of a worse prognosis in both sexes included higher age, lower Modified Mini-Mental State Examination score, lower gait speed, lower grip strength and abnormal (low or elevated) body mass index. Additional risk factors for men included current smoking, and abnormal eGFR. In women, diabetes and depression were additional predictors. The biased-corrected areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the final prognostic models at 5 years were 0.72 for men and 0.75 for women. Final models showed good calibration between the observed and predicted risks. We developed a prediction model in which age, cognitive function and gait speed were the strongest predictors of disability-free survival in healthy older people.Trial registrationClinicaltrials.gov (NCT01038583)
Based on the data collected in this study, it appears that the likelihood of HINE does increase with larger doses, increasing age, increasing serum creatinine, and the presence of malignant neoplasm. However, after adjusting for the variables in the logistic regression model, diagnosis of malignant neoplasm was not a significant predictor of HINE. Future studies may focus on evaluating metabolite levels, such as hydromorphone-3-glucuronide (H3G), in patients developing HINE symptoms. This may help to determine if the metabolites of opioids, such as H3G, are involved in the development of the neurotoxic symptoms.
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