This article is a response to the review of Adrian et al. (2018) by Yudaeva (2018), which summarizes the case of the Bank of Russia against the publication of key rate forecasts, a communication strategy known as conventional forward guidance. We believe that the case in favour of publishing the Bank of Russia'a key rate forecast is at present not stated sufficiently coherently. Our note attempts to fill this gap. Extending the argument put forward by Adrian et al. (2018) we provide a comprehensive review of the working papers, staff notes, and leadership comments related to interest rate expectations and monetary policy communication by four central banks that have had practical experience with the application of conventional forward guidance. We conclude with an evaluation of the validity of the commonly voiced concerns regarding its adoption in Russia, based on the reviewed literature.
We document a new source of consumer price microdata. The new database allows researchers studying consumer price behaviour to access current and granular raw statistical observations. The range of observed prices fully covers goods and services of the Rosstat’s CPI sample and extends beyond it. In this paper, we pursue two objectives. First, we describe the data collection mechanism, data structure, and their access protocols, as well provide four complete illustrations of their application using open API: i) training machine models of product classification based on text labels, ii) real-time tracking of product prices, iii) estimating hedonic regressions for product groups, and iv) calculating arbitrary analytical price indices. Second, we share a set of basic skills and technologies for the benefit of researchers interested in creating their own sources of alternative data.
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