Attempts at identifying patients with an elevated risk of bleeding while on anticoagulation following acute venous thromboembolism (VTE) have largely been unsuccessful thus far. We sought to develop a clinical prediction score for bleeding during stable anticoagulation treatment after acute VTE.We performed a post hoc analysis of the pooled RE-COVER studies, two double-blind randomised "sister" trials evaluating dabigatran versus standard treatment in 5107 VTE patients.A score was derived from patients randomised to dabigatran using logistic regression analysis covering the complete follow-up period. The final model, named VTE-BLEED, included six variables and yielded a c-statistic of 0.72 (95% CI 0.67-0.76). Patients from the derivation cohort in the low-risk group (<2 points; 74% of the derivation population) had a bleeding incidence of 2.8% compared to 12.6% in the elevated-risk group (OR 5.0; 95% CI 3.5-7.1). The score proved accurate for our primary end-point, i.e. prediction of major bleeding after day 30 ("stable" anticoagulation), both in patients on dabigatran (c-statistic 0.75, 95% CI 0.61-0.89) and those on warfarin (0.78, 95% CI 0.68-0.86; p=0.77 for difference).The new VTE-BLEED score accurately predicted major bleeding events in VTE patients on stable anticoagulation with both dabigatran and warfarin.

Contact tracing is believed to be an effective method to control infectious diseases. If an infected person is noticed (the index case), one tries to find other infected persons through the contact history of the index case. The distribution of the total number of additionally detected persons per index case is derived, partially by heuristic arguments. The reproduction number influences this distribution only weakly, and the detection rate of index cases even less. This distribution depends mainly on the tracing probability. An estimator for the tracing probability is derived. This estimator is applied to data for tuberculosis and chlamydia.

Human Cytomegalovirus (CMV) can lead to primary infection or reactivation in CMV-seronegative or -seropositive kidney transplant recipients, respectively. Complications comprise severe end-organ diseases and acute or chronic transplant rejection. Risk for CMV manifestation is stratified according to the CMV-IgG-serostatus, with donor+/recipient- (D+/R-) patients carrying the highest risk for CMV-replication. However, risk factors predisposing for primary infection in CMV-seronegative recipients are still not fully elucidated. Therefore, we monitored D+/R- high-risk patients undergoing kidney transplantation in combination with antiviral prophylaxis for the incidence of CMV-viremia for a median follow-up time of 784 days (156–1155 days). In this period, we analyzed the functional CMV-specific T cell response by intracellular cytokine staining and CMV-serology by ELISA. Only four of eight D+/R- patients developed clinically relevant CMV-viremia followed by seroconversion. Viremia triggered expansion of functional CMV-specific T cells correlating with protection against secondary CMV-reactivations. In contrast, all other patients remained permanently aviremic and showed no immunological correlate of infection after discontinuation of antiviral prophylaxis for up to three years. Comparing cold ischemic times (CIT) of viremic (median = 1020 min; 720–1080 min) and aviremic patients (median = 335 min; 120–660 min) revealed significantly (p = 0.0286) protracted CIT in patients with primary CMV-infection. Taken together, primary CMV-infection affects only a subgroup of D+/R- patients correlating with length of CIT. Therefore, patients with extended CIT should be thoroughly monitored for CMV-replication well beyond discontinuation of antiviral prophylaxis. In contrast, patients with short CIT remained permanently uninfected and might benefit from shorter prophylactic treatment.

The early transition to sirolimus provides long-term efficiency results comparable with a tacrolimus-based regimen, which represents a common treatment standard after kidney transplantation. Both are superior to other investigated immunosuppressive regimens.

The cost-effectiveness evaluations showed that dabigatran can be considered the dominant treatment strategy compared to rivaroxaban in the patients' sub-groups considered, given the projected marginally higher clinical benefits and lower treatment costs.