This paper examines the roles that increasing personal wealth and home equity withdrawal (HEW) have had in the decline in the personal saving rate in the United States. It does so by comparing the U.S. experience with that of Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom. Mortgage market liberalization and innovation reduce household cash-flow and collateral constraints while making housing wealth more liquid as HEW becomes easier over time. Regression analysis indicates the expected negative relationship between U.S. saving and net worth, with a somewhat smaller coefficient than in previous empirical studies. Changes in HEW are found not to have a significant impact on U.S. saving in the short or long run. In that sense, housing wealth is not an “ATM.”IMF Staff Papers (2007) 54, 539–561. doi:10.1057/palgrave.imfsp.9450018

After many years of rapid expansion, China's growth is slowing to more sustainable levels and is rebalancing, with consumption becoming the main growth driver. This transition is likely to have negative effects on its trading partners in the near term. This paper studies the potential spillovers to the ASEAN-5 economies through trade, commodity prices, and financial markets. It finds that countries with closer trade linkages with China (Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand) and net commodity exporters (Indonesia and Malaysia) would suffer the largest impact, with growth falling between 0.2 and 0.5 percentage points in response to a decline in China's growth by 1 percentage point depending on the model used and the nature of the shock. The impact could be larger if China's slowdown and rebalancing coincides with bouts of global financial volatility. There are also opportunities from China's rebalancing, both in merchandise and services trade, and there is preliminary evidence that some ASEAN-5 economies are already benefiting from these trends.

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With policy rates close to the zero bound and the economies still on the downslide, major advanced country central banks have had to rely on unconventional measures to stabilize financial conditions and support aggregate demand. The measures have differed considerably in their scope, and have inter alia included broad liquidity provision to financial institutions, purchases of long-term government bonds, and intervention in key credit markets. Taken collectively, they have contributed to the reduction of tail risks following the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and to a broad-based improvement in financial conditions. Central banks have adequate tools to effect orderly exit from exceptional monetary policy actions, but clear communication is central to maintaining well anchored inflation expectations and to ensuring a smooth return to normal market functioning.

This paper examines trends in infrastructure investment and its financing in low-income developing countries (LIDCs). Following an acceleration of public investment over the last 15 years, the stock of infrastructure assets increased in LIDCs, even though large gaps remain compared to emerging markets. Infrastructure in LIDCs is largely provided by the public sector; private participation is mostly channeled through Public-Private Partnerships. Grants and concessional loans are an essential source of infrastructure funding in LIDCs, while the complementary role of bank lending is still limited to a few countries. Bridging infrastructure gaps would require a broad set of actions to improve the efficiency of public spending, mobilize domestic resources and support from development partners, and crowd in the private sector.