Analysis of problems of the social-economic development of the region, the assessment of the regional economy from the position of the full and rational use of its economic potential supposes developing an appropriate system of special indices, creating tools for their quantitative characteristics. Economic resources as basic constraints for regional economic development are of paramount importance. It is known that these are non-renewable natural, in particular, fuel and energy resources. State authorities at a federal and regional level play an essential role in the regulation of competitive access to energy resources in Russia. The using of balance sheet methods for analysing and comparing different ways of economic development of the areas, the corresponding demand for fuel and energy resources, regulating the export and import of fuel and energy resources, assessing the impact of energy efficiency programs and energy efficiency in the power settings are provided at the legislative level. The paper describes some results and conclusions derived from studies using different approaches to forming a regional energy balance model based on the data of the Sverdlovsk region.

Nowadays, it is relevant to consider changes in the structure of the fuel and energy balance of industrial regions and the availability of imported fuel and energy resources, especially in the areas that lack energy sources. The ongoing structural shifts in energy consumption systems and the growing uncertainty in energy markets encourage the development of tools for improving the sustainable development of regional energy systems. To refine the theoretical and methodological basis of the study, we defined its conceptual framework, described the difference s betwee n sustainabl e functionin g an d developmen t o f th e energy sector and determined the factors of its regional differentiation and manifestations of the energy crisis. Further, we identified the shortcomings of the existing methods for forecasting the demand for electricity. We paid special attention to quality factors of strategic planning in the region, in particular, the used statistics and documents. Based on the analysis of integrated resource planning (IRP) methodology, our experience in forecasting fuel and energy balances, assessment of sectoral indicators of energy efficiency and energy demand in the region, we proposed a model for predictive and analytical justification of regional programmes for energy development. Such a model significantly increases the information reliability of these programmes’ implementation. Considering organisational tools to support sustainable development, we developed a regional energy management scheme and a mechanism stimulating local energy companies to improve energy efficiency in the consumption sector, enhance regional competition and attract investments in the renewal of fixed assets. The study has practical significance due to recommendations and tools for adjusting regional energy policy based on the coordination of the predicted parameters for various participants in the energy supply process.

The article describes an analytical and information system that was used for forecasting the operation parameters of the railway system in a macroregion of Russia-the Far North. Its economy is focused on the extraction and processing of hydrocarbons, metal production, construction materials, and generate large volumes of exports and interregional cargo flows. The region covers an expansive territory and is characterized by harsh weather, an extreme environment, and uneven development of the transportation network. Research into the transportation issues of economic development in such areas presents a challenging task because the region is unique, statistical data are incomplete and classified; there is a hierarchy of businesses and organizations operating in the region that have their own goals and objectives and compete against its other; the region is plagued with social and environmental problems and a lack of administrative integration between individual districts. Using rigorous mathematical tools for assessing transportation infrastructure projects under such conditions is only limited to finding solutions to stand-alone problems and scenario comparison. A model of the applied system that is outlined in the article makes it possible to analyze specific projects of regional railway system development that take into account strategic priorities and goals of the state, social and economic development problems experienced by the neighboring regions, the oil and gas sector and major employers, as well as corporate goals of the sustainable development of railway companies. The application of the model over an extended period of time showed that the analysis of the structure of cargo flows and customers bound to junctions of the transportation network makes it possible to suggest what aspects of the railway infrastructure should be reorganized in line with the development dynamics of economic entities that consume transportation services. The study is built upon a number of projects that were implemented in the north of Tyumen Region and the Yamal-Nenets and Khanty-Mansi autonomous areas of Russia.

The main difficulties related to the economic study of traffic problems are caused by the large number of interrelated factors, hierarchical and competing goals of economic subjects, social and environmental problems of the territory, the degree of administrative independence of its individual parts, as well as the importance of regional economy within the country. The application of rigorous mathematical tools to assess trends in the development of transport infrastructure in these conditions is very limited and is usually reduced to the justification of a few scenarios. The paper offers specific methodological approaches, analytical apparatus with a number of the analyzed conditions and factors, a logical basis for the formation of scenarios in the design of transport systems, including the railway infrastructure of the region. The novelty of the approach used is a combination of accounting features of the territory from the perspective of mineral resources development, and quantification of long-term needs in the freight made on the balance calculations basis.

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Keywords: regional economy, energy saving, energy efficiency, reliability, stochasticity, trend, dynamics, information, forecast, fuel and energy balance The relevance and empirical background of the problemThe main purpose of this article is to discuss the development of a methodology for the complex analysis of the regional energy consumption dynamics in the framework of modified models of the fuel and energy balance, the use of which would be quite correct in the context of limited access to information, its non-completeness, the need for coordination with aggregate indicators of the approved socio-economic development forecast and participatory monitoring of these documents in accordance with applicable legislation 2 . The consideration of the general principle -the less accessible and objective the information, the lower the accuracy of the analytical estimates -is extremely relevant in the research of infrastructure subsystems of the regional economy. The International Energy Agency emphasizes the danger of a lack of basic data in the energy information system. Highly important is the reliability of forecasts for regions, the economies of which are characterized by energy criticalitya low share of own fuel and energy sources and a significant amount of their consumption. It is known that energy saving and energy efficiency programs can offer significant economic benefits for such regions, including, in particular, the Sverdlovsk Region. This is possible due to the reduction of fuel and energy transportation costs, the increase in business profitability, the reduction of environmental emissions, the softening of constraints in the fuel and energy balance, and, consequently, more sustainable provision of the region with energy resources. The solution to problems related to the energy efficiency increase in the regional economy relies on the systematic development of a methodological framework for energy management in a competitive market environment, the evaluation and selection of energy efficiency regulation models, mechanisms and instruments, the formation of a package of adequate programs and activities, the prediction of target indicators and the development of methods for their assessment, and the monitoring of territorial socio-economic development forecasts and strategies. Within the constituent entities of the Russian Federation and in accordance with applicable legislation, local governments have developed programs aimed at improving energy efficiency in the regional economy. For the Sverdlovsk Region, the corresponding program is comprehensive -with particular emphasis given to activities for the development of the housing and utilities sector. The scope of target indicators and activities focused on the use of extrabudgetary funds has also been determined. However, the problems of non-budgetary investments in energy savings are still relevant for the Sverdlovsk Region, as well as for other regions of the Russian Federation [1]. According to the International Energy Agency, the effect of energy sa...

Developing methods of aligning such important documents as regional forecasts of social and economic development, and the regional fuel/energy balance plan remains a current challenge determined by the fact that the documents are drafted in isolation, as well as by different levels of detail in projections and a mismatch between target indicators. It is necessary to ensure the priority development of complex regional energy system relative to other industries.Research indicates the absence of a clear logic of coordinating strategies at the regional level of government in the context of the lack of any formal or even expert assessment of balance between them in terms of resources and applicability of appropriate target indicators.The paper aims to discuss the possibility of creating a methodology for comprehensive analysis of the dynamics of energy consumption in a region within the framework of modified fuel and energy balance models that would be acceptable for use when information is scarce or limited, when the energy balance plan must be in line with the aggregate indicators of the approved forecast of social and economic development, and both documents have to be monitored for compliance with law. The paper sets out the authors' methodological approach to compiling variants of the fuel and energy balance plan, possible errors and incomplete data in statistics as well as standards for forecasting accuracy. Keywords: accuracy, dynamics, energy conservation, energy efficiency, forecast, fuel/energy balance plan, information, randomness, regional economy, trends. INTRODUCTIONThe International Energy Agency points to the danger posed by the lack of key data in the system of energy information [1]. The reliability of forecasts is particularly critical to such energy deficient regions as Sverdlovsk Oblast of Russia where the suggested research method was trialled. The region consumes a lot of energy, but is short of its own sources of fuel and power.In several countries, along with Russia, law prohibits the release of statistics for energy consumption by organizations into the public domain as primary data [2]. This makes it difficult or impossible to access quantitative parameters of corporate programmes, fuel and energy consumption data for individual organizations and, as a result, for specific economic activities. Moreover, this raises a doubt about the credibility of the published data and makes it difficult to prevent the deliberate corruption of the data, including for political reasons.Without a fuel/energy balance forecast it is impossible to substantiate energy, environmental and social and economic development forecasts [3]. The fuel and energy balance plan provides details about the consumption of fuel and energy resources, enables the analysis of energy efficiency components in gross regional product (GRP) and the key products, defines the impact of economic activities and local projects on the dynamics of energy consumption, and identifies trends in target

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