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In this retrospective study, the interrater reliability and predictive validity of 2 risk assessment instruments for sexual violence are presented. The SVR-20, an instrument for structured professional judgment, and the Static-99, an actuarial risk assessment instrument, were coded from file information of 122 sex offenders who were admitted to a Dutch forensic psychiatric hospital between 1974 and 1996 (average follow-up period 140 months). Recidivism data (reconvictions) from the Ministry of Justice were related to the risk assessments. The base rate for sexual recidivism was 39%, for nonsexual violent offenses 46%, and for general offenses 74%. Predictive validity of the SVR-20 was good (total score: r = .50, AUC = .80; final risk judgment: r = .60, AUC = .83), of the Static-99 moderate (total score: r = .38, AUC =.71; risk category: r = .30, AUC = .66). The SVR-20 final risk judgment was a significantly better predictor of sexual recidivism than the Static-99 risk category.

Empirical studies have rarely investigated the association between improvements on dynamic risk and protective factors for violence during forensic psychiatric treatment and reduced recidivism after discharge. The present study aimed to evaluate the effects of treatment progress in risk and protective factors on violent recidivism. For a sample of 108 discharged forensic psychiatric patients pre- and posttreatment assessments of risk (HCR-20) and protective factors (SAPROF) were compared. Changes were related to violent recidivism at different follow-up times after discharge. Improvements on risk and protective factors during treatment showed good predictive validity for abstention from violence for short- (1 year) as well as long-term (11 years) follow-up. This study demonstrates the sensitivity of the HCR-20 and the SAPROF to change and shows improvements on dynamic risk and protective factors are associated with lower violent recidivism long after treatment.

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This study examines the predictive validity of the HCR-20 in a sample of 42 female patients admitted to a Dutch forensic psychiatric hospital. The findings are compared with those for a matched sample of 42 male forensic psychiatric patients. The inter-rater reliability of the HCR-20 was good for both female and male patients. There were significant differences between female and male patients in mean HCR-20 item scores, but the mean H, C and R-subscale scores and total score were comparable. The base rate for inpatient violence was similar for female (30%) and male patients (29%), but the base rate for violent recidivism after discharge was significantly higher for the male sample (43%) compared with the female sample (13%). For male patients, the HCR-20 demonstrated good to excellent predictive validity for violent outcome (violent recidivism and inpatient violence); however, predictive accuracy for female patients was much lower. In females, only the HCR-20 final risk judgment, and not the HCR-20 total score, demonstrated significant predictive validity for violent outcome.

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The Structured Assessment of Protective Factors for violence risk (SAPROF) has recently been developed as a risk assessment tool to focus solely on protective factors for (sexual) violence risk. Research on protective factors for sexual offending is very limited and most risk assessment tools for adult sexual offenders do not incorporate protective factors. The current study investigates the applicability and predictive validity of the SAPROF for forensic psychiatric patients who have sexually offended. For a sample of 83 hands-on sexual offenders, risk assessments were carried out retrospectively with the SAPROF, the Historical Clinical Risk Management-20 (HCR-20) and the Sexual Violence Risk-20 (SVR-20). Results show good interrater reliability and negative correlations between the SAPROF and both risk tools. Predictive validities of the SAPROF protective factors for reconvictions of general and sexual violence were good for short-term (1-3 year) as well as for long-term follow-up (15 year). Moreover, the SAPROF remained a statistically significant predictor of future violence and sexual violence even after controlling for the HCR-20 and the SVR-20. Implications of these findings and recommendations for future research are discussed.