Abstract-Bayesian averaging (BA) over ensembles of decision models allows evaluation of the uncertainty of decisions that is of crucial importance for safety-critical applications such as medical diagnostics. The interpretability of the ensemble can also give useful information for experts responsible for making reliable decisions. For this reason, decision trees (DTs) are attractive decision models for experts. However, BA over such models makes an ensemble of DTs uninterpretable. In this paper, we present a new approach to probabilistic interpretation of Bayesian DT ensembles. This approach is based on the quantitative evaluation of uncertainty of the DTs, and allows experts to find a DT that provides a high predictive accuracy and confident outcomes. To make the BA over DTs feasible in our experiments, we use a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique with a reversible jump extension. The results obtained from clinical data show that in terms of predictive accuracy, the proposed method outperforms the maximum a posteriori (MAP) method that has been suggested for interpretation of DT ensembles.
Health care practitioners analyse possible risks of misleading decisions and need to estimate and quantify uncertainty in predictions. We have examined the "gold" standard of screening a patient's conditions for predicting survival probability, based on logistic regression modelling, which is used in trauma care for clinical purposes and quality audit. This methodology is based on theoretical assumptions about data and uncertainties. Models induced within such an approach have exposed a number of problems, providing unexplained fluctuation of predicted survival and low accuracy of estimating uncertainty intervals within which predictions are made. Bayesian method, which in theory is capable of providing accurate predictions and uncertainty estimates, has been adopted in our study using Decision Tree models. Our approach has been tested on a large set of patients registered in the US National Trauma Data Bank and has outperformed the standard method in terms of prediction accuracy, thereby providing practitioners with accurate estimates of the predictive posterior densities of interest that are required for making risk-aware decisions.
Abstract-In this paper we describe a new method combining the polynomial neural network and decision tree techniques in order to derive comprehensible classification rules from clinical electroencephalograms (EEGs) recorded from sleeping newborns. These EEGs are heavily corrupted by cardiac, eye movement, muscle and noise artifacts and as a consequence some EEG features are irrelevant to classification problems. Combining the polynomial network and decision tree techniques, we discover comprehensible classification rules whilst also attempting to keep their classification error down. This technique is shown to outperform a number of commonly used machine learning technique applied to automatically recognize artifacts in the sleep EEGs.Index Terms-Neural nets, feature evaluation and selection, mining methods and algorithms.
Decision Trees (DTs) provide an attractive classification scheme because clinicians responsible for making reliable decisions can easily interpret them. Bayesian averaging over DTs allows clinicians to evaluate the class posterior distribution and therefore to estimate the risk of making misleading decisions. The use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology of stochastic sampling makes the Bayesian DT technique feasible to perform. The Reversible Jump (RJ) extension of MCMC allows sampling from DTs of different sizes. However, the RJ MCMC process may become stuck in a particular DT far away from the region with maximal posterior. This negative effect can be mitigated by averaging the DTs obtained in different starts. In this paper we describe a new approach based on an adaptive sampling scheme. The performances of Bayesian DT techniques with the restarting and adaptive strategies are compared on a synthetic dataset as well as on some medical datasets. By quantitatively evaluating the classification uncertainty, we found that the adaptive strategy is superior to the restarting strategy.
We describe a new technique developed for an automated recognition of solar filaments visible in Hα hydrogen line full-disk spectroheliograms. These filaments are difficult to recognize because of variability in the background caused by atmospheric conditions. The presented technique is based on an artificial neural network (ANN) consisting of two hidden neurons and one output neuron which learn to exclude the contribution of a changeable background to a filament. The ANN is trained on a single image fragment labeled manually to recognize the filament elements depicted on a local background. The background contribution is approximated with linear and parabolic functions. This technique applied to the filament recognition in 54 cropped images reveals better detection results for a parabolic approximation than for a linear one approaching an accuracy of about 82% of the total filament pixels.
Brain development can be evaluated by experts analysing age-related patterns in sleep electroencephalograms (EEG). Natural variations in the patterns, noise, and artefacts affect the evaluation accuracy as well as experts’ agreement. The knowledge of predictive posterior distribution allows experts to estimate confidence intervals within which decisions are distributed. Bayesian approach to probabilistic inference has provided accurate estimates of intervals of interest. In this paper we propose a new feature extraction technique for Bayesian assessment and estimation of predictive distribution in a case of newborn brain development assessment. The new EEG features are verified within the Bayesian framework on a large EEG data set including 1,100 recordings made from newborns in 10 age groups. The proposed features are highly correlated with brain maturation and their use increases the assessment accuracy.
-EEG experts can assess a newborn's brain maturity by visual analysis of age-related patterns in sleep EEG. It is highly desirable to make the results of assessment most accurate and reliable. However, the expert analysis is limited in capability to provide the estimate of uncertainty in assessments. Bayesian inference has been shown providing the most accurate estimates of uncertainty by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) integration over the posterior distribution. The use of MCMC enables to approximate the desired distribution by sampling the areas of interests in which the density of distribution is high. In practice, the posterior distribution can be multimodal, and so that the existing MCMC techniques cannot provide the proportional sampling from the areas of interest. The lack of prior information makes MCMC integration more difficult when a model parameter space is large and cannot be explored in detail within a reasonable time. In particular, the lack of information about EEG feature importance can affect the results of Bayesian assessment of EEG maturity. In this paper we explore how the posterior information about EEG feature importance can be used to reduce a negative influence of disproportional sampling on the results of Bayesian assessment. We found that the MCMC integration tends to oversample the areas in which a model parameter space includes one or more features, the importance of which counted in terms of their posterior use is low. Using this finding, we proposed to cure the results of MCMC integration and then described the results of testing the proposed method on a set of sleep EEG recordings.
Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) models have been developed for predicting the survival probability of injured patients the majority of which obtain up to three injuries in six body regions. Practitioners have noted that the accuracy of TRISS predictions is unacceptable for patients with a larger number of injuries. Moreover, the TRISS method is incapable of providing accurate estimates of predictive density of survival, that are required for calculating confidence intervals. In this paper we propose Bayesian inference for estimating the desired predictive density. The inference is based on decision tree models which split data along explanatory variables, that makes these models interpretable. The proposed method has outperformed the TRISS method in terms of accuracy of prediction on the cases recorded in the US National Trauma Data Bank. The developed method has been made available for evaluation purposes as a stand-alone application.
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