Abstract. The location, timing, spatial extent, and frequency of wildfires are changing rapidly in many parts of the world, producing substantial impacts on ecosystems, people, and potentially climate. Paleofire records based on charcoal accumulation in sediments enable modern changes in biomass burning to be considered in their long-term context. Paleofire records also provide insights into the causes and impacts of past wildfires and emissions when analyzed in conjunction with other paleoenvironmental data and with fire models. Here we present new 1000-year and 22 000-year trends and gridded biomass burning reconstructions based on the Global Charcoal Database version 3 (GCDv3), which includes 736 charcoal records (57 more than in version 2). The new gridded reconstructions reveal the spatial patterns underlying the temporal trends in the data, allowing insights into likely controls on biomass burning at regional to global scales. In the most recent few decades, biomass burning has sharply increased in both hemispheres but especially in the north, where charcoal fluxes are now higher than at any other time during the past 22 000 years. We also discuss methodological issues relevant to data-model comparisons and identify areas for future research. Spatially gridded versions of the global data set from GCDv3 are provided to facilitate comparison with and validation of global fire simulations.

Wildfires are becoming more frequent in parts of the globe, but predicting where and when wildfires occur remains difficult. To predict wildfire extremes across the contiguous United States, we integrate a 30‐yr wildfire record with meteorological and housing data in spatiotemporal Bayesian statistical models with spatially varying nonlinear effects. We compared different distributions for the number and sizes of large fires to generate a posterior predictive distribution based on finite sample maxima for extreme events (the largest fires over bounded spatiotemporal domains). A zero‐inflated negative binomial model for fire counts and a lognormal model for burned areas provided the best performance. This model attains 99% interval coverage for the number of fires and 93% coverage for fire sizes over a six year withheld data set. Dryness and air temperature strongly predict extreme wildfire probabilities. Housing density has a hump‐shaped relationship with fire occurrence, with more fires occurring at intermediate housing densities. Statistically, these drivers affect the chance of an extreme wildfire in two ways: by altering fire size distributions, and by altering fire frequency, which influences sampling from the tails of fire size distributions. We conclude that recent extremes should not be surprising, and that the contiguous United States may be on the verge of even larger wildfire extremes.

Recent fires have fueled concerns that regional and global warming trends are leading to more extreme burning. We found compelling evidence that average fire events in regions of the United States are up to four times the size, triple the frequency, and more widespread in the 2000s than in the previous two decades. Moreover, the most extreme fires are also larger, more common, and more likely to co-occur with other extreme fires. This documented shift in burning patterns across most of the country aligns with the palpable change in fire dynamics noted by the media, public, and fire-fighting officials.

The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate-ecological-social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.

Understanding the processes that led to the recent evolution of Mediterranean landscapes is a challenging question that can be addressed with paleoecological data. Located in the White Mountains of Crete, Asi Gonia peat bog constitutes an exceptional 2000-years-long sedimentary archive of environmental change. In this study, we document the making of the White Mountains landscape and assess human impact on ecosystem trajectories. The paleoenvironmental reconstruction is based on high-resolution analyses of sediment, pollen, dung fungal spores and charcoal obtained from a 6-m core collected from the bog. Multiproxy analyses and a robust chronological control have shed light on anthropogenic and natural processes that have driven ecological changes, giving rise to the present-day Mediterranean ecosystem. Our results suggest that sediment accumulation began during the transition from the Hellenistic to the Roman period, likely due to watershed management. The evolution of the peat bog as well as vegetation dynamics in the surrounding area were linked to past climate changes but were driven by human activities, among which breeding was of great importance. Charcoal analysis reveals that fire was largely used for the construction and maintenance of sylvo-agropastoral areas. Pollen data allow the identification of three main vegetation assemblages: 1) evergreen oak forest (before ca. 850 AD), 2) heather maquis (ca. 850 to 1870 AD), 3) phrygana/steppe landscape. Rapid changes between phases in vegetation development are associated with tipping-points in ecosystem dynamics resulting from anthropogenic impact. The modern ecosystem did not get established until the 20th century, and it is characterized by biodiversity loss along with a dramatic drying of the peat bog.

Forest/steppe boundaries are among the most dynamic ecosystems on Earth and are highly vulnerable to changes in climate and land use. In this study we examine the postglacial history of the Patagonian forest/steppe ecotone (41-43°S) to better understand its sensitivity to past variations in climate, disturbance, and human activity before European colonization. We present regional trends in vegetation and biomass burning, as detected by generalized additive models fitted to seven pollen and charcoal records, and compare the results with other paleoenvironmental data, as well as archeological and ecological information to (i) estimate postglacial fire trends at regional scales, (ii) assess the evolution of climate-vegetation-fire linkages over the last 18,000 calibrated (cal) years B.P., and (iii) evaluate the role of humans in altering pre-European landscapes and fire regimes. Pollen and charcoal data indicate that biomass burning was relatively low during warm/dry steppe-dominated landscapes in the late glacial/Early Holocene transition and increased as more humid conditions favored forest development after ca. 10,000 cal years B.P. Postglacial fire activity was thus limited by fuel availability associated with sparse vegetation cover rather than by suitable climate conditions. In contrast to extensive burning by European settlers, variations in indigenous population densities were not associated with fluctuations in regional or watershed-scale fire occurrence, suggesting that climate-vegetation-fire linkages in northern Patagonia evolved with minimal or very localized human influences before European settlement.charcoal | fire | climate | anthropogenic impact | Patagonia

Fire is a key ecological process affecting vegetation dynamics and land cover. The characteristic frequency, size, and intensity of fire are driven by interactions between top-down climate-driven and bottom-up fuel-related processes. Disentangling climatic from non-climatic drivers of past fire regimes is a grand challenge in Earth systems science, and a topic where both paleoecology and ecological modeling have made substantial contributions. In this manuscript, we (1) review the use of sedimentary charcoal as a fire proxy and the methods used in charcoal-based fire history reconstructions; (2) identify existing techniques for paleoecological modeling; and (3) evaluate opportunities for coupling of paleoecological and ecological modeling approaches to better understand the causes and consequences of past, present, and future fire activity.

Aim Reconstruct the long‐term ecosystem dynamics of the region across an elevational gradient as they relate to climate and local controls. In particular, we (1) describe the dominant conifers' history; (2) assess changes in vegetation composition and distribution; and (3) note periods of abrupt change versus stability as means of better understanding vegetation responses to environmental variability. Location Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE; USA). Time period 16.5 ka bp‐present. Major taxa studied Juniperus, Picea, Abies, Pinus, Pseudotsuga. Methods The vegetation reconstruction was developed from 15 pollen records. Results were interpreted based on modern pollen–vegetation relationships estimated from a suite of regression‐based approaches. Results Calibrated pollen data suggest that late‐glacial vegetation, dominated by shrubs and Juniperus, lacks a modern counterpart in the area. Picea, Abies and Pinus expanded at 16 ka bp in association with postglacial warming and co‐occurred in mixed‐conifer parkland/forest after 12 ka bp. This association along with Pinus contorta forest, which was present after 9 ka bp, has persisted with little change at middle and high elevations to the present day. This stability contrasts with the dynamic history of plant communities at low elevations, where shifts between parkland, steppe and forest over the last 8,000 years were likely driven by variations in effective moisture and fire. Main conclusions The postglacial vegetation history of the GYE highlights the dynamic nature of mountain ecosystems and informs on their vulnerability to future climate change: (1) most of the conifers have been present in the area for >12,000 years and survived climate change by adjusting their elevational ranges; (2) some plant associations have exhibited stability over millennia as a result of nonclimatic controls; and (3) present‐day forest cover is elevationally more compressed than at any time in history, probably due to the legacy of the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age.