The tumour immune microenvironment is considered to influence cancer behaviour and outcome. Using a panel of markers for innate and adaptive immune cells we set out to characterise and understand the bladder tumour microenvironment of 114 patients from a prospective multicentre cohort of newly-diagnosed bladder cancer patients, followed-up for 4.33±1.71 years. We found IL-17-positive cells were significantly increased in primary and concomitant carcinoma in situ (CIS), p<0.0001, a highly malignant lesion which is the most significant single risk factor for disease progression. Further characterisation of the tumour immunophenotype identified IL-17+ cells as predominantly mast cells rather than T-cells, in contrast to most other tumour types. Expression of the IL-17-receptor in bladder tumours, and functional effects and gene expression changes induced by IL-17 in bladder tumour cells in vitro suggest a role in tumour behaviour. Finally, we assessed the effects of IL-17 in the context of patient outcome, following intravesical BCG immunotherapy which is the standard of care; higher numbers of IL-17+ cells were associated with improved event-free survival (p = 0.0449, HR 0.2918, 95% CI 0.08762–0.9721) in patients with primary and concomitant CIS (n = 41), we propose a model of IL-17+ Mast cells mechanism of action. Thus, in the context of bladder CIS, IL-17+ mast cells predict favourable outcome following BCG immunotherapy indicative of a novel mechanism of BCG immunotherapy in UBC and could form the basis of a stratified approach to treatment.

INTRODUCTION In the 75-80% of urothelial bladder cancers (UBC) presenting as non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC), transurethral resection of bladder tumour (TURBT) is the key treatment and staging procedure. In the 20-25% of patients with muscle invasive bladder cancer (MIBC), further cross-sectional imaging is required to complete the staging process before considering radical treatment. Given the adverse effects of ionising radiation, clinicians identify patients believed to have MIBC, and so requiring further imaging pre-TURBT, at the tumour histology/stage based on the tumour's visual characteristics. There is minimal evidence describing the accuracy of such predictions in newly-diagnosed patients. METHODS Over a 6-year period, a database of patients undergoing resection of newly-diagnosed bladder lesions in a single UK centre was prospectively established. Predictions based on histology were simultaneously recorded, and the accuracy of these predictions of histology/stage subsequently assessed. RESULTS One hundred and twenty two (73.1%) patients with histologically confirmed NMIBC had predictions recorded versus 45 (26.9%) patients with MIBC. Visual assessment predictions of MIBC had a sensitivity of 88.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 76.5%-95.2%) and a specificity of 91.0% (95% CI 84.6%-94.9%), giving a positive predictive value of 78.4% (95% CI 65.4%-87.5%) and a negative predictive value of 95.7% (95% CI 90.3%-98.1%). CONCLUSIONS We find that visual assessment is accurate in predicting the presence of MIBC. This supports the practice of stratifying patients at the time of initial cystoscopy for those requiring further radiological staging pre-TURBT.

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