We document the cyclical properties of US firms' financial flows and show that equity payout is procyclical and debt payout is countercyclical. We then develop a model with debt and equity financing to explore how the dynamics of real and financial variables are affected by "financial shocks." We find that financial shocks contributed significantly to the observed dynamics of real and financial variables. The recent events in the financial sector show up as a tightening of firms' financing conditions which contributed to the 2008-2009 recession. The downturns in 1990-1991 and 2001 were also influenced by changes in credit conditions. (JEL E23, E32, E44, G01, G32)
Recent studies have shown that the dynamics of firms (growth, job reallocation, and exit) are negatively correlated with the initial size of the firm and its age. In this paper we analyze whether financial factors, in addition to technological differences, are important in generating these dynamics. We introduce financial-market frictions in a basic model of industry dynamics with persistent shocks and show that the combination of persistent shocks and financial frictions can account for the simultaneous dependence of firm dynamics on size (once we control for age) and on age (once we control for size).
This paper examines entrepreneurship in order to analyze, first, the degree to which the opportunity to start or own a business affects the household's saving behavior and the implication of this behavior for the distribution of wealth and, second, the relationship between the extent of entrepreneurship in the economy and socioeconomic mobility, that is, the movement of families across wealth classes over time.First, a number of stylized facts based on data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the Survey of Consumer Finances are outlined. They show relevant differences in asset holdings and wealth mobility between entrepreneurs and workers. Second, a dynamic general equilibrium model with an explicit formalization of the entrepreneurial choice is developed. Through the modeling of the entrepreneurial activities, the model generates a concentration of wealth similar to the one observed in the U. S. economy and it replicates the main patterns of wealth mobility in which entrepreneurs experience higher upward mobility than workers. (JEL E21,D31,J23)
Global financial imbalances can result from financial integration when countries differ in financial markets development. Countries with more advanced financial markets accumulate foreign liabilities in a gradual, long-lasting process. Differences in financial development also affect the composition of foreign portfolios: countries with negative net foreign asset positions maintain positive net holdings of nondiversifiable equity and foreign direct investment. Three observations motivate our analysis: (1) financial development varies widely even among industrial countries, with the United States on top; (2) the secular decline in the U.S. net foreign asset position started in the early 1980s, together with a gradual process of international financial integration; (3) the portfolio composition of U.S. net foreign assets features increased holdings of risky assets and a large increase in debt. (c) 2009 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved..
The paper conducts an empirical analysis of the importance of entrepreneurship for wealth concentration and mobility using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. The data shows a marked concentration of wealth in the hands of entrepreneurs which is not merely a consequence of their higher incomes. The higher saving rates among entrepreneurs is one of the possible explanations for their higher asset holdings and this hypothesis is supported by the statistical tests conducted in the paper. The data also shows that entrepreneurs experience greater upward mobility in that they have a greater probability of moving to higher wealth classes, and this is not only a consequence of their higher incomes.Note: I would like to thank Hilary Appel, Thomas Cooley, Michael Greenacre, Boyan Jovanovic, Per Krusell, Jost-Victor Rios-Rull and Kenneth Wolpin for helpful suggestions on earlier versions of this paper. I am also grateful to an anonymous referee whose suggestions have improved the paper considerably. Any errors in this paper are, of course, entirely my own.
material in this paper was previously incorporated in the companion paper "Financial Innovations and Macroeconomic Volatility". Financial support from the National Science Foundation is gratefully acknowledged. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peerreviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications.
Large and persistent global financial imbalances need not be the harbinger of a world financial crash. Instead, we show that these imbalances can be the outcome of financial integration when countries differ in financial markets deepness. In particular, countries with more advanced financial markets accumulate foreign liabilities in a gradual, long-lasting process. Differences in financial deepness also affect the composition of foreign portfolios: countries with negative net foreign asset positions maintain positive net holdings of non-diversifiable equity and FDI. Abstracting from the potential impact of globalization on financial development, liberalization leads to sizable welfare gains for the more financially-developed countries and losses for the others. Three empirical observations motivate our analysis: (1)financial deepness varies widely even amongst industrial countries, with the United States ranking at the top; (2) the secular decline in the U.S. net foreign asset position started in the early 1980s, together with a gradual process of international capital markets liberalization; (3) net exports and current account balances are negatively correlated with indicators of financial development.
During the last three decades, the stock of government debt has increased in most developed countries. During the same period, we also observe a significant liberalization of international financial markets and an increase in income inequality in several industrialized countries. In this paper we propose a multicountry political economy model with incomplete markets and endogenous government borrowing and show that governments choose higher levels of public debt when financial markets become internationally integrated and inequality increases. We also conduct an empirical analysis using OECD data and find that the predictions of the theoretical model are supported by the empirical results.
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