In recent years, extensive research has been performed to identify prognostic factors that predict survival in terminally ill cancer patients. This study describes the construction of a simple prognostic score based on factors identified in a prospective multicenter study of 519 patients with a median survival of 32 days. An exponential multiple regression model was adopted to evaluate the joint effect of some clinico-biological variables on survival. From an initial model containing 36 variables, a final parsimonious model was obtained by means of a backward selection procedure. The Palliative Prognostic Score (PaP Score) is based on the final model and includes the following variables: Clinical Prediction of Survival (CPS), Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), anorexia, dyspnea, total white blood count (WBC) and lymphocyte percentage. A numerical score was given to each variable, based on the relative weight of the independent prognostic significance shown by each single category in the multivariate analysis. The sum of the single scores gives the overall PaP Score for each patient and was used to subdivide the study population into three groups, each with a different probability of survival at 30 days: (1) group A: probability of survival at 30 days > 70%, with patient score < or = 5.5; (2) group B: probability of survival at 30 days 30-70%, with patient score 5.6-11.0; and (3) group C: probability of survival at 30 days < 30%, with patient score > 11.0. Using this method, 178/519 (34.3%) patients were classified in risk group A, 205 (39.5%) patients were in risk group B, and 136 (26.2%) patients were in risk group C. The patients classified in the three risk groups had a very different survival experience (logrank = 294.8, P < 0.001), with a median survival of 64 days for group A, 32 days for group B, and 11 days for group C. The PaP Score based on simple clinical and biohumoral variables proved to be statistically significant in a multivariate analysis. The score is valid in this population (training set). An independent validation on another patient series (testing set) is required and is the object of a companion paper.
Quantifying the vocal repertoire of a species is critical for subsequent analysis of signal functionality, geographic variation, and social relevance. However, the vocalizations of free‐ranging common dolphins (Delphinus sp.) have not previously been described from New Zealand waters. We present the first quantitative analysis of whistle characteristics to be undertaken on the New Zealand population. Acoustic data were collected in the Hauraki Gulf, North Island from 28 independent dolphin group encounters. A total of 11,715 whistles were collected from 105.1 min of recordings. Seven whistle contours were identified containing 29 subtypes. Vocalizations spanned from 3.2 to 23 kHz, with most whistles occurring between 11 and 13 kHz. Whistle duration ranged from 0.01 to 4.00 s (mean ± SD; 0.27 ± 0.32). Of the 2,663 whistles analyzed, 82% have previously been identified within U.K. populations. An additional six contours, apparently unique to New Zealand Delphinus were also identified. Data presented here offer a first insight into the whistle characteristics of New Zealand Delphinus. Comparisons with previously studied populations reveal marked differences in the whistle frequency and modulation of the New Zealand population. Interpopulation differences suggest behavior and the local environment likely play a role in shaping the vocal repertoire of this species.
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