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Abstract. We compute the Bayesian evidence and complexity of 193 slow-roll single-field models of inflation using the Planck 2013 Cosmic Microwave Background data, with the aim of establishing which models are favoured from a Bayesian perspective. Our calculations employ a new numerical pipeline interfacing an inflationary effective likelihood with the slowroll library ASPIC and the nested sampling algorithm MultiNest. The models considered represent a complete and systematic scan of the entire landscape of inflationary scenarios proposed so far. Our analysis singles out the most probable models (from an Occam's razor point of view) that are compatible with Planck data, while ruling out with very strong evidence 34% of the models considered. We identify 26% of the models that are favoured by the Bayesian evidence, corresponding to 15 different potential shapes. If the Bayesian complexity is included in the analysis, only 9% of the models are preferred, corresponding to only 9 different potential shapes. These shapes are all of the plateau type.

The current flow of high accuracy astrophysical data, among which are the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) measurements by the Planck satellite, offers an unprecedented opportunity to constrain the inflationary theory. This is however a challenging project given the size of the inflationary landscape which contains hundreds of different scenarios. Given that there is currently no observational evidence for primordial non-Gaussianities, isocurvature perturbations or any other non-minimal extension of the inflationary paradigm, a reasonable approach is to consider the simplest models first, namely the slow-roll single field models with minimal kinetic terms. This still leaves us with a very populated landscape, the exploration of which requires new and efficient strategies. It has been customary to tackle this problem by means of approximate model independent methods while a more ambitious alternative is to study the inflationary scenarios one by one. We have developed the new publicly available runtime library ASPIC 1 to implement this last approach. The ASPIC code provides all routines needed to quickly derive reheating consistent observable predictions within this class of scenarios. ASPIC has been designed as an evolutive code which presently supports 74 different models, a number that may be compared with three or four representing the present state of the art. In this paper, for each of the ASPIC models, we present and collect new results in a systematic manner, thereby constituting the first Encyclopaedia Inflationaris. Finally, we discuss how this procedure and ASPIC could be used to determine the best model of inflation by means of Bayesian inference.

Combining the stochastic and δ N formalisms, we derive non-perturbative analytical expressions for all correlation functions of scalar perturbations in single-field, slow-roll inflation. The standard, classical formulas are recovered as saddle-point limits of the full results. This yields a classicality criterion that shows that stochastic effects are small only if the potential is sub-Planckian and not too flat. The saddle-point approximation also provides an expansion scheme for calculating stochastic corrections to observable quantities perturbatively in this regime. In the opposite regime, we show that a strong suppression in the power spectrum is generically obtained, and we comment on the physical implications of this effect.

Abstract. We calculate the full probability density function (PDF) of inflationary curvature perturbations, even in the presence of large quantum backreaction. Making use of the stochastic-δN formalism, two complementary methods are developed, one based on solving an ordinary differential equation for the characteristic function of the PDF, and the other based on solving a heat equation for the PDF directly. In the classical limit where quantum diffusion is small, we develop an expansion scheme that not only recovers the standard Gaussian PDF at leading order, but also allows us to calculate the first non-Gaussian corrections to the usual result. In the opposite limit where quantum diffusion is large, we find that the PDF is given by an elliptic theta function, which is fully characterised by the ratio between the squared width and height (in Planck mass units) of the region where stochastic effects dominate. We then apply these results to the calculation of the mass fraction of primordial black holes from inflation, and show that no more than ∼ 1 e-fold can be spent in regions of the potential dominated by quantum diffusion. We explain how this requirement constrains inflationary potentials with two examples.

According to cosmological inflation, the inhomogeneities in our universe are of quantum mechanical origin. This scenario is phenomenologically very appealing as it solves the puzzles of the standard hot big bang model and naturally explains why the spectrum of cosmological perturbations is almost scale invariant. It is also an ideal playground to discuss deep questions among which is the quantum measurement problem in a cosmological context. Although the large squeezing of the quantum state of the perturbations and the phenomenon of decoherence explain many aspects of the quantum to classical transition, it remains to understand how a specific outcome can be produced in the early universe, in the absence of any observer. The Continuous Spontaneous Localization (CSL) approach to quantum mechanics attempts to solve the quantum measurement question in a general context. In this framework, the wavefunction collapse is caused by adding new non linear and stochastic terms to the Schrödinger equation. In this paper, we apply this theory to inflation, which amounts to solving the CSL parametric oscillator case. We choose the wavefunction collapse to occur on an eigenstate of the Mukhanov-Sasaki variable and discuss the corresponding modified Schrödinger equation. Then, we compute the power spectrum of the perturbations and show that it acquires a universal shape with two branches, one which remains scale invariant and one with n S = 4, a spectral index in obvious contradiction with the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) anisotropy observations. The requirement that the non-scale invariant part be outside the observational window puts stringent constraints on the parameter controlling the deviations from ordinary quantum mechanics. Due to the absence of a CSL amplification mechanism in field theory, this has also for consequence that the collapse mechanism of the inflationary fluctuations is not efficient. Then, we determine the collapse time. On small scales the collapse is almost instantaneous, and we recover exactly the behavior of the CSL harmonic oscillator (a case for which we present new results), whereas, on large scales, we find that the collapse is delayed and can take several e-folds to happen. We conclude that recovering the observational successes of inflation and, at the same time, reaching a satisfactory resolution of the inflationary "macro-objectification" issue seems problematic in the framework considered here. This work also provides a complete solution to the CSL parametric oscillator system, a topic we suggest could play a very important rôle to further constrain the CSL parameters. Our results illustrate the remarkable power of inflation and cosmology to constrain new physics.

Reheating is the epoch which connects inflation to the subsequent hot big-bang phase. Conceptually very important, this era is, however, observationally poorly known. We show that the current Planck satellite measurements of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies constrain the kinematic properties of the reheating era for most of the inflationary models. This result is obtained by deriving the marginalized posterior distributions of the reheating parameter for about 200 models of slow-roll inflation. Weighted by the statistical evidence of each model to explain the data, we show that the Planck 2013 measurements induce an average reduction of the posterior-to-prior volume by 40%. Making some additional assumptions on reheating, such as specifying a mean equation of state parameter, or focusing the analysis on peculiar scenarios, can enhance or reduce this constraint. Our study also indicates that the Bayesian evidence of a model can substantially be affected by the reheating properties. The precision of the current CMB data is therefore such that estimating the observational performance of a model now requires incorporating information about its reheating history.

The curvature perturbations produced during an early era of inflation are known to have quasi-Gaussian distribution functions close to their maximum, where they are well constrained by measurements of the cosmic microwave background anisotropies and of the large-scale structures. In contrast, the tails of these distributions are poorly known, although this part is the relevant one for rare, extreme objects such as primordial black holes. We show that these tails are highly non-Gaussian, and cannot be described with standard non-Gaussian expansions, that are designed to approximate the distributions close to their maximum only. Using the stochastic-δN formalism, we develop a generic framework to compute the tails, which are found to have an exponential, rather than Gaussian, decay. These exponential tails are inevitable, and do not require any non-minimal feature as they simply result from the quantum diffusion of the inflaton field along its potential. We apply our formalism to a few relevant single-field, slow-roll inflationary potentials, where our analytical treatment is confirmed by comparison with numerical results. We discuss the implications for the expected abundance of primordial black holes in these models, and highlight that it can differ from standard results by several orders of magnitude. In particular, we find that potentials with an inflection point overproduce primordial black holes, unless slow roll is violated.