Background Spinal fusion is a well-established procedure in the treatment of degenerative spinal diseases. Previous research shows that the use of this operative treatment has been growing in recent decades in industrialized countries and has become one of the most cost-intensive surgical procedures. It seems that in some countries such as Germany—with its large, industrialized, European population—this increase is mainly driven by demographic changes with low fertility rates, increasing life expectancy, and an aging population. Based on current projections, however, Germany faces a population trend that many other countries are likely to follow within a few decades. An increasingly shrinking and aging working population may eventually put the healthcare system under enormous pressure, with greater demands for spinal fusions and associated higher costs. Thus, we aimed to provide reliable projections regarding the future demand for posterior spinal fusion procedures including age- and gender-related trends up to 2060, which will be necessary for future resource planning and possible improvements in actual treatment strategies. Questions/purposes (1) How is the use of posterior spinal fusions in Germany expected to change from 2019 through 2060, if currents trends continue? (2) How is the use of posterior spinal fusions in Germany expected to change depending on patients’ age and gender during this time period? Methods Comprehensive nationwide data provided by the Federal Statistical Office, the official institution for documenting all data on operations and procedures performed in Germany, were used to quantify posterior spinal fusion rates as a function of calendar year, age, and gender. Because there is a lack of evidence regarding future trends in the use of posterior spinal fusions, an autoregressive integrated moving average model on historical procedure rates from 2005 to 2019 in relation to official population projections from 2020 to 2060 was chosen to forecast future absolute numbers and incidence rates of this procedure in Germany. Long-term forecasting is more prone to unexpected disruptions than forecasting over short-term periods; however, longer spans facilitate estimates of how trends may challenge future healthcare systems if those trends continue, and thus are useful for research and planning. Results The incidence rate of posterior spinal fusion was projected to increase by approximately 83% (95% CI 28% to 139%) to 102% per 100,000 inhabitants (95% CI 71% to 133%) in 2060, with a 1.3-fold higher rate of women undergoing surgery in terms of absolute numbers. The highest increase identified by the model occurred in patients 75 years and older with 38,974 (95% CI 27,294 to 50,653) posterior spinal fusions in 2060, compared with 14,657 in 2019. This trend applied for both women and men, with a 246% (95% CI 138% to 355%) increase in the total number of posterior spinal fusions for women 75 years and older and a 296% (95% CI 222% to 370%) increase for men 75 years and older. At the same time, posterior spinal fusions in all age groups younger than 55 years were projected to follow a constant or even negative trend up to 2060. Conclusion Our findings suggest that increasing use of posterior spinal fusion, particularly in patients 75 years and older, will challenge healthcare systems worldwide if current trends persist. This study may serve as a model for many other industrialized countries facing similar demographic and procedure-specific developments in the future. This emphasizes the need to focus on frailty research as well as appropriate financial and human resource management. Effective perioperative medical management, multidisciplinary treatment, and interinstitutional protocols are warranted, especially in older patients as we attempt to manage these trends in the future. Level of Evidence Level III, economic and decision analysis.
Bisphenol A (BPA), which is contained in numerous plastic products, is known to act as an endocrine-disruptive, toxic, and carcinogenic chemical. This experimental series sought to determine the influence of BPA exposure on the femoral bone architecture and biomechanical properties of male and female Wistar rats. BPA was applied subcutaneously by using osmotic pumps. After 12 weeks, the bones were analyzed by micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) and a three-point bending test. Comparing the female low- and high-dose groups, a significantly greater marrow area (p = 0.047) was identified in the group exposed to a higher BPA concentration. In addition, the trabecular number tended to be higher in the female high-dose group when compared to the low-dose group (p > 0.05). The area moment of inertia also tended to be higher in the male high-dose group when compared to the male low-dose group (p > 0.05). Considering our results, BPA-related effects on the bone morphology in female Wistar rats are osteoanabolic after high-dose exposure, while, in male rats, a tendency toward negative effects on the bone morphology in terms of a reduced cross-sectional cortical area and total area could be demonstrated.
Purpose Aim of this study was to compare the reconstruction of radiological sagittal spinopelvic parameters between lordotic (10°) and normal cages (0°) after dorsal lumbar spondylodesis. Methods This retrospective monocentric study included patients who received dorsal lumbar spondylodesis between January 2014 and December 2018. Inclusion criteria were degenerative lumbar diseases and mono-or bi-segmental fusions in the middle and lower lumbar region. Exclusion criteria were long-distance fusions (3 segments and more) and infectious and tumour-related diseases. The sagittal spinopelvine parameters (lumbar lordosis, segmental lordosis, sacral slope, pelvic incidence, and pelvic tilt) were measured pre-and post-operatively by two examiners at two different times. The patients were divided into 2 groups (group 1: lordotic cage, group 2: normal cage). Results One hundred thirty-eight patients (77 female, 61 male) with an average age of 66.6 ± 11.2 years (min.: 26, max.: 90) were included in the study based on the inclusion criteria. Ninety-two patients (66.7%) received 0°cages and 46 (33.3%) lordotic cages (10°). Segmental lordosis was increased by 4.2°on average in group 1 and by 6.5°in group 2 (p = 0.074). Average lumbar lordosis was increased by 2.1°in group 1 and by 0.6°in group 2 (p = 0.378). There was no significant difference in the correction of sagittal spinopelvic parameters. Inter-and inter-class reliability was between 0.887 and 0.956. Conclusion According to the results of our study, no advantages regarding sagittal radiological parameters for the implantation of a lordotic cage could be demonstrated.
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