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Abstract. In Hungary, wind erosion is one of the most serious natural hazards. Spatial and temporal variation in the factors that determine the location and intensity of wind erosion damage are not well known, nor are the regional and local sensitivities to erosion. Because of methodological challenges, no multi-factor, regional wind erosion sensitivity map is available for Hungary. The aim of this study was to develop a method to estimate the regional differences in wind erosion sensitivity and exposure in Hungary.Wind erosion sensitivity was modelled using the key factors of soil sensitivity, vegetation cover and wind erodibility as proxies. These factors were first estimated separately by factor sensitivity maps and later combined by fuzzy logic into a regional-scale wind erosion sensitivity map. Large areas were evaluated by using publicly available data sets of remotely sensed vegetation information, soil maps and meteorological data on wind speed. The resulting estimates were verified by field studies and examining the economic losses from wind erosion as compensated by the state insurance company. The spatial resolution of the resulting sensitivity map is suitable for regional applications, as identifying sensitive areas is the foundation for diverse land development control measures and implementing management activities.

The potential impacts of climate change on the Great Hungarian Plain based on two regional climate models, REMO and ALADIN, were analyzed using indicators for environmental hazards. As the climate parameters (temperature, precipitation, and wind) will change in the two investigated periods (2021-2050 and 2071-2100), their influences on drought, wind erosion, and inland excess water hazards are modeled by simple predictive models. Drought hazards on arable lands will increasingly affect the productivity of agriculture compared to the reference period . The models predict an increase between 12.3 % (REMO) and 20 % (ALADIN) in the first period, and between 35.6 % (REMO) and 45.2 % (ALA-DIN) in the second period. The increase of wind erosion hazards is not as obvious (?15 % for the first period in the REMO model). Inland excess water hazards are expected to be slightly reduced (-4 to 0 %) by both model predictions in the two periods without showing a clear tendency on reduction. All three indicators together give a first regional picture of potential hazards of climate change. The predictive model and data combinations of the regional climate change models and the hazard assessment models provide insights into regional and subregional impacts of climate change and will be useful in planning and land management activities.

Several environmental and economic consequences of drought and the accompanying water shortage were observed in the plain area of the Carpathian Basin in the last decades. This area is mostly used for agriculture, thus it is a key problem in the future to maintain food safety in the changing circumstances. Therefore, involvement and identification of areas affected by drought hazard and revealing steps of efficient adaptation are of high importance. In this study influence of drought severity on agricultural production is investigated in the Hungarian-Serbian cross-border area. The tendency in drought severity was analysed by PaDI and MAI drought indices. The effect of drought on agricultural production is evaluated on maize yield data as the most drought sensitive crop in the region. Increasing drought frequency and severity was indicated for the study area for the period of 1961-2012. The spatial assessment of annual PaDI maps revealed the higher exposure of the north and northeastern part of the study area to drought, where drought frequency was also experienced to be the highest. Increased sensitivity was detected based on maize yield loss after the early 1990s and annual yields were in strong connection with d rought severity. In spite of the technological development of agriculture, environmental factors still substantially affect crop yie lds. The observed unfavourable changes in the region mean that water management and spatial planning faces conceptual cha llenges to prevent and mitigate the damages of drought.

Abstract:The changes in rate and pattern of wind erosion sensitivity due to climate change were investigated for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 compared to the reference period in Hungary. The sensitivities of the main influencing factors (soil texture, vegetation cover and climate factor) were evaluated by fuzzy method and a combined wind erosion sensitivity map was compiled. The climate factor, as the driving factor of the changes, was assessed based on observed data for the reference period, while REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulation data for the future periods. The changes in wind erosion sensitivity were evaluated on potentially affected agricultural land use types, and hot spot areas were allocated. Based on the results, 5-6% of the total agricultural areas were high sensitive areas in the reference period. In the 21st century slight or moderate changes of wind erosion sensitivity can be expected, and mostly 'pastures', 'complex cultivation patterns', and 'land principally occupied by agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation' are affected. The applied combination of multi-indicator approach and fuzzy analysis provides novelty in the field of land sensitivity assessment. The method is suitable for regional scale analysis of wind erosion sensitivity changes and supports regional planning by allocating priority areas where changes in agro-technics or land use have to be considered.

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The lowland region of the South-Eastern Carpathian Basin faces extreme hydrological conditions, therefore the more detailed understanding, monitoring and predicting of the hydrological regime on catchments have high importance. However, in the region only few measured data are available in terms of evaporation, runoff, infiltration and water retention, and this is especially true concerning small catchments. In the meantime these areas support extensive agriculture, therefore more information is needed to manage future drying and irrigational demands. In the present research runoff and discharge were modelled for a ten year period and compared to at-a-station measurement data on the Fehértó-majsa Canal, a sub-catchment of the Tisza River, in order to test the predictability of hydrological changes related to future climate change. Modelling was made by applying a coupled MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model and integrating all available topographic, pedologic, climatic, hydrologic and vegetation data. Consequently, another motivation of the research was to assess the suitability, data demand and limitations of the MIKE modelling environment on lowland catchments. As from all available data sources soil data seemed to be the least accurate, sensitivity tests were made by changing different soil parameter. Based on the results, the developed model is highly suitable for the estimation of annual and monthly runoff. Nevertheless, concerning daily data a general overestimation of discharge was experienced during low flow periods, and a time lag appeared between measured and modelled discharge peaks during high flow periods. In all, the results of the study can greatly support the realization of water management and planning projects in the drought prone sand land catchments where only a few directly measured data are available

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