Composite analyses of mixed layer temperature (MLT) budget terms from near‐surface meteorological and oceanic observations in the central Bay of Bengal are utilized to evaluate the modulation of air‐sea interactions and MLT processes in response to the summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillation (MISO). For this purpose, we use moored buoy data at 15°N, 12°N, and 8°N along 90°E together with TropFlux meteorological parameters and the Ocean Surface Current Analyses Real‐time (OSCAR) current product. Our analysis shows a strong cooling tendency in MLT with maximum amplitude in the central and northern BoB during the northward propagation of enhanced convective activity associated with the active phase of the MISO; conversely, warming occurs during the suppressed phase of the MISO. The surface mixed layer is generally heated during convectively inactive phases of the MISO primarily due to increased net surface heat flux into the ocean. During convectively active MISO phases, the surface mixed layer is cooled by the combined influence of net surface heat loss to the atmosphere and entrainment cooling at the base of mixed layer. The variability of net surface heat flux is primarily due to modulation of latent heat flux and shortwave radiation. Shortwave is mostly controlled by an enhancement or reduction of cloudiness during the active and inactive MISO phases and latent heat flux is mostly controlled by variations in air‐sea humidity difference.
The influence of the Atlantic Zonal Mode (AZM) or the Atlantic Niño on monsoon depressions in the Bay of Bengal during the boreal summer (June-August) is studied. Our analysis shows that there is a statistically significant difference in the number of monsoon depressions in the Bay of Bengal between the warm and cold phases of the AZM; more (fewer) monsoon depressions form during the cold (warm) phase of AZM. It also shows that there are differences in spatial pattern of trajectories of monsoon depressions; during the cold phase of AZM, the tracks are relatively long and seem to cluster along the axis of core monsoon region compared to the warm phase of AZM. The analysis indicates an increase (a reduction) in low-level cyclonic vorticity and midtropospheric humidity but a reduction (an increase) in vertical wind shear due to anomalous circulation pattern. All of these changes are favorable for the enhancement (suppression) of monsoon depressions during the cold (warm) phase of the AZM. Our analysis further shows a teleconnection pathway by which the AZM can influence the remote Indian Ocean. This could have implications for enhancing monsoon prediction skill, especially during non-El Niño-Southern Oscillation years.
ABSTRACT:Earlier studies have identified a teleconnection between the Atlantic zonal mode (AZM) and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR), both of which are active during the boreal summer (AZM: June-August; ISMR: June-September). It is known that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like coupled dynamics are operational in the tropical Atlantic during the AZM events. Our goal here is to extend this process understanding to seek a predictive relation between the tropical Atlantic and the ISMR based on these known teleconnections. Monthly composite analysis of the zonal surface winds, heat content, and sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Atlantic tells us that signatures of a warm or cold AZM event begin to emerge as early as January of that year. We found significant correlations between the ISMR and the low level zonal winds in the western equatorial Atlantic and heat content in the eastern equatorial Atlantic in the boreal spring season. Tracking coherent changes in these winds and the evolution of the heat content in the deep tropical Atlantic in the boreal spring may offer the potential for skillful predictions of the ensuing summer monsoon anomalies, especially during non-ENSO years when the predictability of ISMR tends to be low.
Previous studies have talked about the existence of a relation between the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM) and Atlantic zonal mode (AZM) via the meridional displacement of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the Atlantic during boreal spring and the resulting cross-equatorial zonal winds. However, why the strong relation between the ITCZ (or AMM) and zonal winds does not translate into a strong relation between the ITCZ and AZM has not been explained. This question is addressed here, and it is found that there is a skewness in the relation between ITCZ and AZM: while a northward migration of ITCZ during spring in general leads to a cold AZM event in the ensuing summer, the southward migration of the ITCZ is less likely to lead to a warm event. This is contrary to what the previous studies imply. The skewness is attributed to the Atlantic seasonal cycle and to the strong seasonality of the AZM. All those cold AZM events preceded by a northward ITCZ movement during spring are found to strictly adhere to typical timings and evolution of the different Bjerknes feedback components involved. It is also observed that the causative mechanisms of warm events are more diverse than those of the cold events. These results can be expected to enhance our understanding of the AZM as well as that of chronic model biases and contribute to the predictability of the Indian summer monsoon through the links between the two as shown in our earlier studies.
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