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The economic and mortality impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have been widely discussed, but there is limited evidence on their relationship across demographic and geographic groups. We use publicly available monthly data from January 2011 through April 2020 on all-cause death counts from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and employment from the Current Population Survey to estimate excess all-cause mortality and employment displacement in April 2020 in the United States. We report results nationally and separately by state and by age group. Nationally, excess all-cause mortality was 2.4 per 10,000 individuals (about 30% higher than reported COVID deaths in April) and employment displacement was 9.9 per 100 individuals. Across age groups 25 y and older, excess mortality was negatively correlated with economic damage; excess mortality was largest among the oldest (individuals 85 y and over: 39.0 per 10,000), while employment displacement was largest among the youngest (individuals 25 to 44 y: 11.6 per 100 individuals). Across states, employment displacement was positively correlated with excess mortality (correlation = 0.29). However, mortality was highly concentrated geographically, with the top two states (New York and New Jersey) each experiencing over 10 excess deaths per 10,000 and accounting for about half of national excess mortality. By contrast, employment displacement was more geographically spread, with the states with the largest point estimates (Nevada and Michigan) each experiencing over 16 percentage points employment displacement but accounting for only 7% of the national displacement. These results suggest that policy responses may differentially affect generations and geographies.

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ImportanceFamily income is known to be associated with children’s health; the association may be particularly pronounced among lower-income children in the US, who tend to have more limited access to health resources than their higher-income peers.ObjectiveTo investigate the association of family income with claims-based measures of morbidity and mortality among children and adolescents in lower-income families in the US enrolled in Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis cross-sectional analysis included 795 000 participants aged 5 to 17 years enrolled in Medicaid (Medicaid Analytic eXtract claims, 2011-2012) living in families with income below 200% of the federal poverty threshold (American Community Survey, 2008-2013). Follow-up ended in December 2021.ExposuresFamily income relative to the federal poverty threshold.Main Outcomes and MeasuresRecord of International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision codes for an infection, mental health disorder, injury, asthma, anemia, or substance use disorder and death record within 10 years of observation (Social Security Administration death records through 2021).ResultsAmong 795 000 individuals in the sample (all statistics weighted: mean [SD] income-to-poverty ratio, 90% [53%]; mean [SD] age, 10.6 [3.9] years; 56% aged 10 to 17 years), 33% had a diagnosed infection, 13% had a mental health disorder, 6% had an injury, 5% had asthma, 2% had anemia, 1% had a substance use disorder, and 0.6% died between 2011 and 2021, with the mean (SD) age at death of 19.8 (4.2) years. For those aged 5 to 9 years, higher family income was associated with lower adjusted prevalence of all outcomes, except mortality: children in families with an additional 100% income relative to the federal poverty threshold had 2.3 (95% CI, 1.8-2.9) percentage points fewer infections, 1.9 (95% CI, 1.5-2.2) percentage points fewer mental health diagnoses, 0.7 (95% CI, 0.5-0.8) percentage points fewer injuries, 0.3 (95% CI, 0.09-0.5) percentage points less asthma, 0.2 (95% CI, 0.08-0.3) percentage points less anemia, and 0.06 (95% CI, 0.03-0.09) percentage points fewer substance use disorder diagnoses. Except for injury and anemia, the associations were more pronounced among those aged 10 to 17 years than those 5 to 9 years (P for interaction <.05). For those aged 10 to 17 years, an additional 100% income relative to the federal poverty threshold was associated with a lower 10-year mortality rate by 0.18 (95% CI, 0.12-0.25) percentage points.Conclusions and RelevanceAmong children and adolescents in the US aged 5 to 17 years with family income under 200% of the federal poverty threshold who accessed health care through Medicaid or the Children’s Health Insurance Program, higher family income was significantly associated with a lower prevalence of diagnosed infections, mental health disorders, injury, asthma, anemia, and substance use disorders and lower 10-year mortality. Further research is needed to understand whether these associations are causal.

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