Aim Emergence of coastal lowlands during Pleistocene ice ages might have provided conditions for glacial expansions (demographic and spatial), rather than contraction, of coastal populations of temperate species. Here, we tested these predictions in the insular endemic Sicilian wall lizard Podarcis wagleriana. Location Sicily and neighbouring islands. Methods We sampled 179 individuals from 45 localities across the whole range of P. wagleriana. We investigated demographic and spatial variations through time using Bayesian coalescent models (Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction, Extended Bayesian Skyline plots, Isolation‐with‐migration models) based on multilocus DNA sequence data. We used species distribution modelling to reconstruct present and past habitat suitability. Results We found two main lineages distributed in the east and west portions of the current species range and a third lineage restricted to a small area in the north of Sicily. Multiple lines of evidence from palaeogeographic (shorelines), palaeoclimatic (species distribution models), and multilocus genetic data (demographic and spatial Bayesian reconstructions) indicate that these lineages originated in distinct refugia, located in the north‐western and south‐eastern coastal lowlands, during Middle Pleistocene interglacial phases, and came into secondary contact following demographic and spatial expansions during the last glacial phase. Main conclusions This scenario of interglacial contraction and glacial expansion is in sharp contrast with patterns commonly observed in temperate species on the continent but parallels recent findings on other Mediterranean island endemics. Such a reverse expansion–contraction (EC) dynamic has been likely associated with glacial increases of climatically suitable coastal lowlands, suggesting this might be a general pattern in Mediterranean island species and also in other coastal regions strongly affected by glacial marine regressions during glacial episodes. This study provides explicit predictions and some methodological recommendations for testing the reverse EC model in other region and taxa.

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Summary The response of Posidonia oceanica meadows to global warming of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, where the increase in sea surface temperature (SST) is particularly severe, is poorly investigated. Here, we reconstructed the long‐term P. oceanica production in 60 meadows along the Greek Seas over two decades (1997–2018), using lepidochronology. We determined the effect of warming on production by reconstructing the annual and maximum (i.e. August) SST, considering the role of other production drivers related to water quality (i.e. Chla, suspended particulate matter, Secchi depth). Grand mean (±SE) production across all sites and the study period was 48 ± 1.1 mg DW per shoot yr−1. Production over the last two decades followed a trajectory of decrease, which was related to the concurrent increase in annual SST and SSTaug. Annual SST > 20°C and SSTaug > 26.5°C was related to production decline (GAMM, P < 0.05), while the rest of the tested factors did not help explain the production pattern. Our results indicate a persistent and increasing threat for Eastern Mediterranean meadows, drawing attention to management authorities, highlighting the necessity of reducing local impacts to enhance the resilience of seagrass meadows to global change threats.