Animal populations will mediate the response of global biodiversity to environmental changes. Population models are thus important tools for both understanding and predicting animal responses to uncertain future conditions. Most approaches, however, are correlative and ignore the individual-level mechanisms that give rise to population dynamics. Here, we assess several existing population modelling approaches and find limitations to both ‘correlative’ and ‘mechanistic’ models. We advocate the need for a standardized mechanistic approach for linking individual mechanisms (physiology, behaviour, and evolution) to population dynamics in spatially explicit landscapes. Such an approach is potentially more flexible and informative than current population models. Key to realizing this goal, however, is overcoming current data limitations, the development and testing of eco-evolutionary theory to represent interactions between individual mechanisms, and standardized multi-dimensional environmental change scenarios which incorporate multiple stressors. Such progress is essential in supporting environmental decisions in uncertain future conditions.

Strategies for the conservation and management of many wild species requires an improved understanding of how population dynamics respond to changes in environmental conditions, including key drivers such as food availability. The development of mechanistic predictive models, in which the underlying processes of a system are modelled, enables a robust understanding of these demographic responses to dynamic environmental conditions. We present an individual-based energy budget model for a mega-herbivore, the African elephant (Loxodonta africana), which relates remotely measured changes in food availability to vital demographic rates of birth and mortality. Elephants require large spaces over which to roam in search of seasonal food, and thus are vulnerable to environmental changes which limit space use or alter food availability. The model is constructed using principles of physiological ecology; uncertain parameter values are calibrated using approximate Bayesian computation. The resulting model fits observed population dynamics data well. The model has critical value in being able to project elephant population size under future environmental conditions and is applicable to other mammalian herbivores with appropriate parameterisation.

Reliable information on the likelihood of drought is of crucial importance in agricultural planning and humanitarian decision-making. Acting based upon probabilistic forecasts of drought, rather than responding to prevailing drought conditions, has the potential to save lives, livelihoods and resources, but is accompanied by the risk of acting in vain. The suitability of a novel forecasting

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The ability of animals to adapt to their changing environment will depend in part on shifts in their ranging patterns, but when and why individuals choose to move requires detailed understanding of their decision-making processes. We develop a simple decision-making model accounting for resource availability in habitually used ranges. We suggest that disparities between model predictions and animal tracking data indicate additional factors influencing movement decisions, which may be identified given detailed system-specific knowledge. The model was evaluated using movement data from satellite-tracked elephants (Loxodonta africana) inhabiting the Amboseli Ecosystem in Kenya, moving from savannah areas with low quality but constant resource availability, to areas with temporally-constrained higher nutrient availability. Overall, the model fit the data well: there was a good correlation between predicted and observed locations for the combined data from all elephants, but variation between individuals in how well the model fits. For those elephants where model predictions were less successful, additional factors likely to affect movement decisions, reproduction, anthropogenic threats, memory and perception, are suggested. This protocol for building and testing decision-making models should contribute to success in attempts to preserve sufficient space for large herbivores in their increasingly human-dominated ecosystems.

The ability of mechanistic models to reliably extrapolate to novel conditions could position them as the gold standard in understanding the impacts of global change, but exactly how mechanistic models can be used most effectively remains to be determined. In this issue, Desforges et al. present a mechanistic physiological model to understand the drivers of muskox population dynamics. We took this as an opportunity to discuss the potential for, and challenges of, using mechanistic models to predict ecological responses to environmental change.

Elephant populations in South Africa are largely confined to fenced reserves and therefore require continued management to prevent high elephant densities that may cause habitat degradation. Growing human populations surrounding these reserves limit the possibility for wildlife range expansion, adding socio-economic considerations to the growing list of challenges reserve managers must contend with. Often, reserves have therefore opted to manage elephant population growth using various contraceptive methods to reduce birth rates, with lethal control acting as a last resort.Reserve owners at the Pongola Game Reserve South in northern KwaZulu-Natal opted to vasectomise the oldest male elephants to limit elephant population growth. Besides the reduction in birth rates, vasectomies were anticipated to have minimal impacts on behaviour. This study aimed to examine behavioural implications of treatment by monitoring musth, dominance and social behaviours of vasectomised males.Physical and behavioural observations of vasectomised males were recorded using instantaneous scan sampling and continuous focal samples of study individuals between 2011 and 2016. These data were also collected for non-treated adolescent males, with which to substantiate potential impacts of vasectomies.This case study has revealed that the behaviour of the vasectomised males was not influenced by vasectomies: musth was displayed as anticipated in the oldest males; a linear dominance hierarchy was maintained, headed by the oldest individual, and association patterns with female groups remained intact. Further, the younger non-treated males fell in line with the overall dominance hierarchy.This unique post-treatment study supports the use of vasectomies as a relatively cost-effective (one-off treatment), low-risk and successful tool for the management of elephant population growth, and an option which is preferable to both lethal control and hormonal contraceptives. Further research to establish the impacts of vasectomies on female behaviour and population dynamics is recommended.