After the global eradication of wild polioviruses, the risk of paralytic poliomyelitis from polioviruses will still exist and require active management. Possible reintroductions of poliovirus that can spread rapidly in unprotected populations present challenges to policymakers. For example, at least one outbreak will likely occur due to circulation of a neurovirulent vaccinederived poliovirus after discontinuation of oral poliovirus vaccine and also could possibly result from the escape of poliovirus from a laboratory or vaccine production facility or from an intentional act. In addition, continued vaccination with oral poliovirus vaccines would result in the continued occurrence of vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis. The likelihood and impacts of reintroductions in the form of poliomyelitis outbreaks depend on the policy decisions and on the size and characteristics of the vulnerable population, which change over time. A plan for managing these risks must begin with an attempt to characterize and quantify them as a function of time. This article attempts to comprehensively characterize the risks, synthesize the existing data available for modeling them, and present quantitative risk estimates that can provide a starting point for informing policy decisions.

The effectiveness of vaccination against measles, the leading cause of vaccine-preventable deaths in infants globally, is greatly impacted by the level of maternal antibody to measles virus (or "measles maternal antibody"; MMA) during infancy. Variation in the prevalence of maternal antibody to measles virus between infant populations across countries and sociodemographic strata is poorly understood. We reviewed the literature on the prevalence of MMA, focusing on 3 principal determinants: starting level of maternal antibody, placental transfer of maternal antibody, and rate of decay of maternal antibody after birth. Our review identified placental transfer as an important determinant, with greater efficiency found in studies performed in developed countries. Placental transfer was influenced by gestational age, human immunodeficiency virus infection, and malaria. Antibody levels in mothers varied widely between countries, although predictably according to vaccination status within populations. Rates of antibody decay across studies were similar. Future studies should evaluate the utility of the cord blood level of MMA as a predictor of vaccine efficacy in infancy; inclusion of World Health Organization international reference sera will facilitate comparisons. Greater understanding of the determinants of the prevalence of MMA will help national policy makers determine the appropriate age for measles vaccination.

Policy-makers now face important questions regarding the tradeoffs among different strategies for managing poliomyelitis risks after they succeed with polio eradication. To estimate the potential consequences of reintroductions of polioviruses and the resulting outbreaks, the authors developed a dynamic disease transmission model that can simulate many aspects of outbreaks for different posteradication conditions. In this paper, the authors identify the issues related to prospective modeling of future outbreaks using such a model, including the reality that accurate prediction of conditions and associated model inputs prior to future outbreaks remains challenging. The authors explored the model's behavior in the context of three recent outbreaks resulting from importation of poliovirus into previously polio-free countries and found that the model reproduced reported data on the incidence of cases. The authors expect that this model can provide important insights into the dynamics of future potential poliomyelitis outbreaks and in this way serve as a useful tool for risk assessment.

Wastewater sampling under the conditions studied can be a sensitive supplement to AFP surveillance. Similar studies under different conditions are needed to determine the role of wastewater sampling in post-eradication surveillance.