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Background Withdrawal from renal replacement therapy is common in patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD), but end-of-life service planning is challenging without population-specific data. We aimed to describe mortality after treatment withdrawal in Australian and New Zealand ESKD patients and evaluate death-certified causes of death. Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study on incident patients with ESKD in Australia, 1980–2013, and New Zealand, 1988–2012, from the Australian and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant registry. We estimated mortality rates (by age, sex, calendar year and country) and summarized withdrawal-related deaths within 12 months of treatment modality change. Certified causes of death were ascertained from data linkage with the Australian National Death Index and New Zealand Mortality Collection database. Results Of 60 823 patients with ESKD, there were 8111 treatment withdrawal deaths and 26 207 other deaths over 381 874 person-years. Withdrawal-related mortality rates were higher in females and older age groups. Rates increased between 1995 and 2013, from 1142 (95% confidence interval 1064–1226) to 2706/100 000 person-years (95% confidence interval 2498–2932), with the greatest increase in 1995–2006. A third of withdrawal deaths occurred within 12 months of treatment modality change. The national death registers reported kidney failure as the underlying cause of death in 20% of withdrawal cases, with other causes including diabetes (21%) and hypertensive disease (7%). Kidney disease was not mentioned for 18% of withdrawal patients. Conclusions Treatment withdrawal represents 24% of ESKD deaths and has more than doubled in rate since 1988. Population data may supplement, but not replace, clinical data for end-of-life kidney-related service planning.
Aim: Cardiovascular mortality risk evolves over the lifespan of kidney failure (KF), as patients develop comorbid disease and transition between treatment modalities. Absolute cardiovascular death rates would help inform clinical practice and healthcare provision, but are not well understood across a continuum of dialysis and transplant states. We aimed to characterize cardiovascular death across the natural history of KF using a lifespan approach.Methods: We performed a population-based cohort study of incident patients commencing kidney replacement therapy in Australia and New Zealand. Cardiovascular deaths were identified using data linkage to national death registers. We estimated the probability of death and kidney transplant using multi-state models, and calculated rates of graft failure and cardiovascular death across demographic factors and comorbidities.Results: Among 60 823 incident patients followed over 381 874 person-years, 25% (8492) of deaths were from cardiovascular disease. At 15 years from treatment initiation, patients had a 15.2% probability of cardiovascular death without being transplanted, but only 2.3% probability of cardiovascular death post-transplant.Females had a 3% lower probability of cardiovascular death at 15 years (15.3% vs. 18.6%) but 4% higher probability of non-cardiovascular death (54.5% vs. 50.8%).Within the first year of dialysis, cardiovascular mortality peaked in the second month and showed little improvement across treatment era. Conclusion:Despite improvements over time, cardiovascular death remains common in KF, particularly among the dialysis population and in the first few months of treatment. Multi-state models can provide absolute measures of cardiovascular mortality across both dialysis and transplant states.
IntroductionCardiovascular disease is a leading cause of death in patients with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD). However, ascertaining the impact of cardiovascular deaths has not been well characterised over long periods of follow-up and across different treatment states. Further insights into the lifetime risk of cardiovascular death are required to better inform clinical practice and economic planning. Objectives and ApproachWe performed a population-based cohort study on incident patients receiving ESKD treatment from the Australian and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant registry (ANZDATA). Cardiac/vascular deaths were determined from ICD-10-AM codes listed in the underlying cause of death obtained via data linkage with the Australian National Death Index and New Zealand Mortality Collection database. We estimated mortality rates from cardiac/vascular death across time from ESKD treatment, and calculated probability of death and transplant status over time using multistate models. ResultsAcross 60,823 incident ESKD patients and 381,874 person-years of follow-up, 22% (7,551) of deaths were from cardiac/vascular disease. At 15 years from treatment, 15.6% of patients had died from cardiac/vascular causes, most of whom never received a transplant (13.6% vs 2.0% of cohort). Within the first year of dialysis, cardiac/vascular mortality was highest in the second month, at 3,632/100,000pys. Improvements in cardiac/vascular mortality with calendar year were only seen after 9 months of dialysis. Transplant recipients had consistently lower cardiac/vascular mortality rates (598/100,000 pys) compared to dialysis patients. However, comorbid cardiovascular disease was a risk factor for graft failure and death in transplant recipients (HR:1.52, 95% CI:1.42-1.62). Conclusion / ImplicationsDespite improvements in cardiac/vascular outcomes over time, cardiovascular death remains common in ESKD, particularly in the first few months of treatment. A greater focus on secondary prevention in earlier stages of chronic kidney disease may improve outcomes in new ESKD patients.
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