In this paper, we measure the extent to which a biological marker is a surrogate endpoint for a clinical event by the proportional reduction in the regression coefficient for the treatment indicator due to the inclusion of the marker in the Cox regression model. We estimate this proportion by applying the partial likelihood function to two Cox models postulated on the same failure time variable. We show that the resultant estimator is asymptotically normal with a simple variance estimator. One can construct confidence intervals for the proportion by using the direct normal approximation to the point estimator or by using Fieller's theorem. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed methods are appropriate for practical use. We provide applications to HIV/AIDS clinical trials.
The noise-induced and age-related loss of synaptic connections between auditory-nerve fibers and cochlear hair cells is well-established from histopathology in several mammalian species; however, its prevalence in humans, as inferred from electrophysiological measures, remains controversial. Here we look for cochlear neuropathy in a temporal-bone study of "normal-aging" humans, using autopsy material from 20 subjects aged 0-89 yrs, with no history of otologic disease. Cochleas were immunostained to allow accurate quantification of surviving hair cells in the organ Corti and peripheral axons of auditory-nerve fibers. Mean loss of outer hair cells was 30-40% throughout the audiometric frequency range (0.25-8.0 kHz) in subjects over 60 yrs, with even greater losses at both apical (low-frequency) and basal (high-frequency) ends. In contrast, mean inner hair cell loss across audiometric frequencies was rarely >15%, at any age. Neural loss greatly exceeded inner hair cell loss, with 7/11 subjects over 60 yrs showing >60% loss of peripheral axons re the youngest subjects, and with the age-related slope of axonal loss outstripping the age-related loss of inner hair cells by almost 3:1. The results suggest that a large number of auditory neurons in the aging ear are disconnected from their hair cell targets. This primary neural degeneration would not affect the audiogram, but likely contributes to age-related hearing impairment, especially in noisy environments. Thus, therapies designed to regrow peripheral axons could provide clinically meaningful improvement in the aged ear.
BACKGROUND-It is unclear whether therapy for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) should be initiated with a four-drug or two sequential three-drug regimens.
Genetic variants predict plasma exposure to efavirenz and nelfinavir, and they may predict virologic failure and/or emergence of drug-resistant virus. These associations with treatment responses must be validated in other studies.
This paper proposes nonparametric and weakly structured parametric methods for analyzing survival data in which both the time origin and the failure event can be right- or interval-censored. Such data arise in clinical investigations of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) when the infection and clinical status of patients are observed only at several time points. The proposed methods generalize the self-consistency algorithm proposed by Turnbull (1976, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 38, 290-295) for singly-censored univariate data, and are illustrated with the results from a study of hemophiliacs who were infected with HIV by contaminated blood factor.
The purpose of this article is to model the progression of CD4-lymphocyte count and the relationship between different features of this progression and survival time. The complicating factors in this analysis are that the CD4-lymphocyte count is observed only at certain fixed times and with a high degree of measurement error, and that the length of the vector of observations is determined, in part, by the length of survival. If probability of death depends on the true, unobserved CD4-lymphocyte count, then the survival process must be modelled. Wu and Carroll (1988, Biometrics 44, 175-188) proposed a random effects model for two-sample longitudinal data in the presence of informative censoring, in which the individual effects included only slopes and intercepts. We propose methods for fitting a broad class of models of this type, in which both the repeated CD4-lymphocyte counts and the survival time are modelled using random effects. These methods permit us to estimate parameters describing the progression of CD4-lymphocyte count as well as the effect of differences in the CD4 trajectory on survival. We apply these methods to results of AIDS clinical trials.
Thomas Campbell and colleagues report findings of a randomized trial conducted in
multiple countries regarding the efficacy of antiretroviral regimens with
simplified dosing.
BACKGROUND-It is unclear whether therapy for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) should be initiated with a four-drug or two sequential three-drug regimens.
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