This article seeks to provide a framework for modeling daily zero-coupon yield curve for Government of Ghana bonds based on secondary market daily trades. It also proposes method for modeling the forward yield curve. The current practice in Ghana is to produce yield curve for Government of Ghana bonds based on primary market weekly auctions. This article demonstrates the extraction and fitting of secondary market daily yield curves for Government of Ghana bonds, using bootstrapping and piecewise cubic hermite interpolation. The article also compares the piecewise cubic hermite method with the piecewise cubic spline method, the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model, and the penalized smoothing spline method. Data used are the daily bond price data from the Ghana Fixed Income Market, accessible at the Central Securities Depository of Ghana. The results show yield curves that reflect the actual daily yield movements in the secondary bond market of Ghana. The results also show that the piecewise cubic hermite method fits the zero-coupon yield curve better than the other methods as far as the Ghanaian bond market is concerned. For the forward curves, we recommend that either or both of the piecewise cubic hermite method and the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson method could be used by the market participants.
This research paper examines the effect of interest rate liberalization on bank deposits in a developing country Ghana. A deposit function model was specified with long term deposit as the main dependent variable with real savings rate, real treasury bill rate, exchange rate movement and gross domestic product as independent variables while controlling for inflation. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method was used to estimate the specified model which covered seasonally adjusted quarterly data drawn from Bank of Ghana and Ghana Statistical Service. The data were input into a spreadsheet and exported into Econometric View 7 which was used for processing the data. The results of the study revealed that the interest rate liberalization and gross domestic product jointly accounted for about 78% of the variation in the level of bank savings deposits in Ghana. The study has also shown that the liberalization of the interest rates has made it attractive for people with idle funds to save with financial institutions especially the banks. It also revealed a negative relationship between real savings rate and the real treasury bill rate expected in a high inflationary environment. All the independent variables were significant. It is therefore recommended that the Bank of Ghana remains resilience on interest rate liberalization so that surplus funds can be made available for investors and also to reduce the level of inflation in Ghana.
This study analyses the determinants of Rural and Community Banks (RCBs) liquidity performance in Ghana using the CAMEL regulatory measures and macroeconomic variables with RCBs' market jurisdiction as a moderating variable. 114 rural and community bank-specific panel data from 2005 -2013 and the panel least square fixed effect method estimation were used for the research. The result suggests that capital adequacy, asset quality, management efficiency and gross domestic product have significant positive relationship and effect on liquidity. It finds evidence to establish that profitability and management efficiency studied within a period reveal contradictory outcomes on banks' liquidity performance. It also supports studies on performance of banks which show that macroeconomic variables on their performance have mixed outcomes. Further, it indicates that, whenever an investment is not done carefully it has a negative effect on RCBs' liquidity performance. Also, market jurisdiction of rural and community banks has a significant effect on their liquidity performance.
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) intends to enhance China's international integration, strikingly by enhancing infrastructure and bolstering trade and investment links among the economies involved. Poor transport infrastructure and border restrictions are significant deterrents to trade expansion, economic growth, and bilateral trade. Using panel structural gravity model estimations, this study investigates the impact of Transportation infrastructure inheritances on bilateral trade across the Belt and Road member countries, particularly in Eastern Africa. The study considers the potential effect of the BRI roads, railways, and Information and Communication Technology (ICT) infrastructure network on the bilateral trade and economies of the Eastern African countries. The empirical analysis offers robust evidence that transport infrastructure promotes trade. The study found that transport infrastructure has a significant and positive effect on trade. These results imply that transport infrastructure exerts a strong effect on trade and growth in Eastern Africa. Policies for increasing access and affordability of transport infrastructure are highly recommended to promote trade and economic growth in the Eastern Africa sub‐region.
Even though the Ghanaian government bonds are listed and traded on the e-bond trading platform of the Ghana Fixed Income Market, the secondary bond market of Ghana is still underdeveloped and illiquid. Due to the underdeveloped and illiquid nature of the market, and the accompanying problem of non-availability of enough bond and yield data, the only source of data relied upon for yield curve fitting in Ghana is the primary bond market. Meanwhile, the primary market yield curve has low frequency because it is produced weekly. Furthermore, movement in the primary curve is localized at the short ends. The long ends of the curve remain static for months or even years. This does not help reveal the underlying dynamics of bond yield or bond interest rate in Ghana. Despite the fact that there is scarcity of daily frequency data due to the illiquid and underdeveloped nature of the market, we believe that with appropriate methodology, a practically useful daily frequency yield curve can be produced. This paper seeks to fit the secondary market daily frequency zero-coupon yield curve for the Government bonds traded on the e-bond trading platform, using the piecewise cubic Hermite interpolation. Data is obtained from the Central Securities Depository of Ghana. The results show yield curves which have daily frequency; and reveal the true yield dynamics prevailing in the secondary bond market. The yield curves also show the underlying bond market interest rates resulting from free market operations among market participants, devoid of direct involvement of the central bank.
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