A military conflict (especially its active phase) is a time of maximum exertion of all the powers of the state and society, a time that requires
quick and correct decisions from state bodies. The quality of these
decisions is largely determined by the estimation adequacy of the current
situation. As the analysis shows, modern military conflicts start suddenly and
develop rapidly. The official informing system turns out to be ineffective,
what leads to numerous mistakes in decision-making. In addition, modern
military conflicts are of a hybrid nature. The outcome of such military
conflicts depends on many factors of a non-military nature, for example, the
quality of governance, sup- port from the population, international
assistance. These factors are often formulated qualitatively
(linguistically), and the conditions of the active phase of a military
conflict do not give time to check the adequacy of quantitative data.
Therefore, it is necessary that the method for estimating the outcome of the
active phase takes into account the data uncertainty and ensures a
generalization of the partial characteristics of the current situation.
Based on the analysis of known approaches to the description and process-
ing of uncertainty, the authors proposed using the methods of fuzzy integral
calculus to describe partial characteristics and calculate a generalized
characteristic, which is an estimation of the success of the outcome of an
active phase. The authors have solved the following subproblems:
identification of structure and parameters of standard for estimating;
choice of the observation channel of the characteristics of the current
situation; constructing the algorithm for estimations generalization. The
authors demonstrated the work of the proposed algorithm by the example of
estimating the results of hostilities in eastern Ukraine in July 2014.
In this article the algorithm for the decision of alternatives' estimation problems for following conditions is considered. Values of alternative's characteristics (properties) are fuzzy. They are formalized as fuzzy sets. The estimation criteria structure is network-like and is formalized as the oriented graph with one source and many drains. The alternative's estimation result is calculated in criterion-source. Connections between criteria are formalized by fuzzy measures Sugeno. Upper-level criteria are considered as contexts for lower-level criteria. Fuzzy integrals Sugeno or Choquet are used as aggregation operator. In article also the properties of fuzzy measure and fuzzy integrals (Sugeno and Choquet) are analyzed. Properties of fuzzy measure and integrals are comparing with properties of other mathematical tools. As example the car's estimation problem is presented.
The robust optimal discrete filter for flight information parameters estimation of Unman Arial Vehicle in conditions of nonstationary and not additive disturbance influence, with unknown parameters, is synthesized. The filter based on the theory of fuzzy measure and fuzzy-integral calculus. An estimation of the signal is determined by fuzzy images of the signal estimated value at the previous step of the measured signal and by selection of filtration function. . The investigations of the optimality of synthesized fuzzy filter are performed.
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