ObjectivesTo investigate the use of latent class growth analysis (LCGA) in understanding onset and changes in multimorbidity over time in older adults.Study Design and SettingThis study used primary care consultations for 42 consensus-defined chronic morbidities over 3 years (2003–2005) by 24,615 people aged >50 years at 10 UK general practices, which contribute to the Consultations in Primary Care Archive database. Distinct groups of people who had similar progression of multimorbidity over time were identified using LCGA. These derived trajectories were tested in another primary care consultation data set with linked self-reported health status.ResultsFive clusters of people representing different trajectories were identified: those who had no recorded chronic problems (40%), those who developed a first chronic morbidity over 3 years (10%), a developing multimorbidity group (37%), a group with increasing number of chronic morbidities (12%), and a multi-chronic group with many chronic morbidities (1%). These trajectories were also identified using another consultation database and associated with self-reported physical and mental health.ConclusionThere are distinct trajectories in the development of multimorbidity in primary care populations, which are associated with poor health. Future research needs to incorporate such trajectories when assessing progression of disease and deterioration of health.

ObjectiveTo determine whether general cognitive ability, basic mathematic processing, and mathematic attainment are universally affected by gestation at birth, as well as whether mathematic attainment is more strongly associated with cohort-specific factors such as schooling than basic cognitive and mathematical abilities.Study designThe Bavarian Longitudinal Study (BLS, 1289 children, 27-41 weeks gestational age [GA]) was used to estimate effects of GA on IQ, basic mathematic processing, and mathematic attainment. These estimations were used to predict IQ, mathematic processing, and mathematic attainment in the EPICure Study (171 children <26 weeks GA).ResultsFor children born <34 weeks GA, each lower week decreased IQ and mathematic attainment scores by 2.34 (95% CI: −2.99, −1.70) and 2.76 (95% CI: −3.40, −2.11) points, respectively. There were no differences among children born 34-41 weeks GA. Similarly, for children born <36 weeks GA, mathematic processing scores decreased by 1.77 (95% CI: −2.20, −1.34) points with each lower GA week. The prediction function generated using BLS data accurately predicted the effect of GA on IQ and mathematic processing among EPICure children. However, these children had better attainment than predicted by BLS.ConclusionsPrematurity has adverse effects on basic mathematic processing following birth at all gestations <36 weeks and on IQ and mathematic attainment <34 weeks GA. The ability to predict IQ and mathematic processing scores from one cohort to another among children cared for in different eras and countries suggests that universal neurodevelopmental factors may explain the effects of gestation at birth. In contrast, mathematic attainment may be improved by schooling.

BackgroundDevelopmental theories for the aetiology of Borderline Personality Disorder (BPD) suggest that both individual features (e.g., childhood dysregulated behaviour) and negative environmental experiences (e.g., maladaptive parenting, peer victimisation) may lead to the development of BPD symptoms during adolescence. Few prospective studies have examined potential aetiological pathways involving these two factors.MethodWe addressed this gap in the literature using data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). We assessed mother-reported childhood dysregulated behaviour at 4, 7 and 8 years using the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ); maladaptive parenting (maternal hitting, punishment, and hostility) at 8 to 9 years; and bully victimisation (child and mother report) at 8, 9 and 10 years. BPD symptoms were assessed at 11 years using the UK Childhood Interview for DSM-IV BPD. Control variables included adolescent depression (assessed with the Short Moods and Feelings Questionnaire-SMFQ) and psychotic symptoms (assessed with the Psychosis-Like Symptoms Interview-PLIKS) at 11 to 14 years, and mother’s exposure to family adversity during pregnancy (assessed with the Family Adversity Scale-FAI).ResultsIn unadjusted logistic regression analyses, childhood dysregulated behaviour and all environmental risk factors (i.e., family adversity, maladaptive parenting, and bully victimisation) were significantly associated with BPD symptoms at 11 years. Within structural equation modelling controlling for all associations simultaneously, family adversity and male sex significantly predicted dysregulated behaviour across childhood, while bully victimisation significantly predicted BPD, depression, and psychotic symptoms. Children displaying dysregulated behaviour across childhood were significantly more likely to experience maladaptive parenting (β = 0.075, p < 0.001) and bully victimisation (β = 0.327, p < 0.001). Further, there was a significant indirect association between childhood dysregulated behaviour and BPD symptoms via an increased risk of bullying (β = 0.097, p < 0.001). While significant indirect associations between dysregulated behaviour, bully victimisation and depression (β = 0.063, p < 0.001) and psychotic (β = 0.074, p < 0.001) outcomes were also observed, the indirect association was significantly stronger for the BPD outcome (BPD – depression = 0.034, p < 0.01; BPD – psychotic symptoms = 0.023, p < 0.01).ConclusionsChildhood dysregulated behaviour is associated with BPD in early adolescence via an increased risk of bully victimisation. This suggests that childhood dysregulation may influence the risk of bully victimisation, which in turn influences the development of BPD. Effective interventions should target dysregulated behaviour early on to reduce exposure to environmental risks and the subsequent development of BPD.