In this paper, a new approach to determine optimal disassembly plan of an end-of-life system by using Bayesian network is introduced. The best solution is called the optimal trajectory. A trajectory model is proposed which allows handling the different key factors and also makes it possible to manage uncertainties specific to system deconstruction. After having presented the disassembly planning issue, Bayesian networks instantiated to dismantling problem are introduced together with the influence diagram which allow the decision maker to proceed to the economic assessment of the different possible strategies. Among the various cost factors is the cost related to warranty of the recycled products. A warranty program management is described. Eventually, the global trajectory model, including the implementation of the warranty cost has a decision variable, is presented.
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