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A high dynamic environment is typically interested by changes affecting the natural processes and their related consequences. Landslides do not only alter the landscape, but substantially affect human activities. When it comes to natural hazards, landslides have been acknowledged as one of the main causes of human casualties or damage to assets. Furthermore, economic losses to rural lands are also significant, despite often being underrated, especially in rural areas. In not densely populated territories, the main productive activities are in fact often based on the agricultural and pastoral resources. We intend to propose a methodology that helps to investigate the potential loss of value (expressed in e) of lands usually exploited for economical profit in rural areas. We test the method on two case studies, belonging to different European Countries with very different economical assets and geological, geomorphological, and environmental conditions. The first study area is located in the Southern Italian Apennines, in the Molise region, while the second area is located in Buzau County, a region belonging to the Romanian Curvature Carpathians and Subcarpathians. Our analysis is focused not only on the actual situation, represented by the past and present landslides, but also on potential future scenarios for 2050. The scenarios foresee future similar socio-economical and technological activities, with no major changes expected. The loss estimation is based on the presence of landslides affecting the rural lands, but it also considers both a present and future landslide susceptibility scenario. This procedure allowed the estimation of the economic losses in the two case-study areas, highlighting how the same natural processes might result in different economical consequences. Following our approach, the results highlight that for the Italian case study there is a loss of 10.4% for 2007 and 9.9% for 2050 of the total land value as concerns landslides susceptibility. In the Romanian case study, on the other hand, the loss corresponds to 29.6 and 29.8% for 2010 and 2050, respectively. In addition, the proposed procedure could be considered a valuable methodological approach to assess landslide-induced economic losses, and be effectively used during spatial planning activities, aimed at supporting decision makers for a more sustainable land management.

In this paper the role of time and late Pleistocene to middle Holocene climate changes in the Somma-Vesuvius volcano foothill (southern Italy) is investigated with a multidisciplinary approach. Four volcanic soils inter-layered between five well-known and well-dated primary tephra layers were characterized. Chronological constraints were provided by the pyroclastic layers identified in the field (Pomici di Base, Pomici Verdoline, Agnano Pomici Principali, Mercato and Avellino), ranging between 22 and 3.8 thousand years (ka) before present (BP). These represent products of explosive eruptions of Somma-Vesuvius and the Phlegrean Fields. Another pyroclastic layer (Agnano Monte Spina) from the Phlegrean Fields was also identified, and other ash layers previously unknown in the Somma-Vesuvius stratigraphy. These were characterized with SEM-EDS analyses, and correlated with other eruptions from the Phlegrean Fields (Soccavo 4-5 and Tufi Biancastri) around 12 and 21 ka BP, respectively, thus resulting in further time constraints for phases of soil development. A detailed characterization of the four pedons integrated morphological, physical, chemical, mineralogical and micromorphological analyses. Soil features were interpreted in terms of dominant genetic processes and environmental conditions. The extent of soil development, assessed with pedogenetic indices and the degree of weathering of primary pumices, was only in part consistent with time-spans of soil formation, suggesting a more important role of climate than soil age. The different extents of expression of andic properties, pumice weathering and varying clay mineralogy allowed us to relate changes to the main climatic phases that occurred during the late Pleistocene to the mid Holocene.

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This study investigates consequences of future changes to the provision of ecosystem services (ES) in the Romanian Carpathians. Two 2040 forest management scenarios were compared, using two indicators to describe the gains and losses of ES. Changes in landslide regulation potential were defined as changes to landslide susceptibility. High nature value grasslands characterized biodiversity support. The business as usual scenario results in a 8% lower loss of landslide regulation potential compared to the alternative scenario. It also results in a 29% higher regional net gain of landslide regulation potential. Both scenarios result in the loss of biodiversity support due to their prevalent transition of forest expansion. This type of information is crucial for informing decision makers on the locations of potential gains and losses of future development.

Since 1990 the Subcarpathians in Buzau County, Romania have witnessed substantial socioeconomic changes and resulting changes in the land cover. Influenced by the interplay of poor economic conditions, land ownership reforms, and institutional difficulties, these changes have been difficult to manage, resulting in a dispersal of built-up areas. Even though, the spatial extent of land cover changes has not reached critical levels as similar areas in the Carpathians, our analysis suggests that in the future the area might experience more extreme land cover changes. Moreover, the litho-structural traits and the high relief energy of the Romanian Subcarpathians favored the occurrence of various types of mass movements, imposing different levels of risk to people, buildings and infrastructure. Increase of human influence in form of expansion of built-up areas in the area could therefore result in slope instability and changes in the temporal and spatial patterns of hydro-meteorological hazards. This study shows, that possible future changes in land cover will not have a major influence on hazards, however risk might increase due to the increased value and number of elements at risk. KeywordsLand cover change Á Scenarios Á GIS Á Landslide susceptibility IntroductionIn mountain areas even minor land cover changes can aggravate the consequences of hydro-meteorological hazards such as landslides, avalanches, and flash floods. Whereas most of conditioning factors for landslides (e.g. topography, geology, hydrology) can be considered as stationary, land cover can change in a relatively short time span, therefore directly affecting the landslide spatial distribution occurrence. Our research addresses the possible land cover changes in form of expansion of built-up areas in the Romanian Carpathians, under a set of scenarios of socioeconomic change. Through our research, we tried to evaluate how different land cover change scenarios might result in changes in landslide susceptibility and in which susceptibility classes the major changes might happen.

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