Smoldering multiple myeloma (SMM) is an asymptomatic precursor state of multiple myeloma (MM). Recently, MM was redefined to include biomarkers predicting a high risk of progression from SMM, thus necessitating a redefinition of SMM and its risk stratification. We assembled a large cohort of SMM patients meeting the revised IMWG criteria to develop a new risk stratification system. We included 1996 patients, and using stepwise selection and multivariable analysis, we identified three independent factors predicting progression risk at 2 years: serum M-protein >2 g/dL (HR: 2.1), involved to uninvolved free light-chain ratio >20 (HR: 2.7), and marrow plasma cell infiltration >20% (HR: 2.4). This translates into 3 categories with increasing 2-year progression risk: 6% for low risk (38%; no risk factors, HR: 1); 18% for intermediate risk (33%; 1 factor; HR: 3.0), and 44% for high risk (29%; 2–3 factors). Addition of cytogenetic abnormalities (t(4;14), t(14;16), +1q, and/or del13q) allowed separation into 4 groups (low risk with 0, low intermediate risk with 1, intermediate risk with 2, and high risk with ≥3 risk factors) with 6, 23, 46, and 63% risk of progression in 2 years, respectively. The 2/20/20 risk stratification model can be easily implemented to identify high-risk SMM for clinical research and routine practice and will be widely applicable.

Immunoparesis or suppression of polyclonal immunoglobulins is a very common condition in newly diagnosed myeloma patients. However, the recovery of polyclonal immunoglobulins in the setting of immune reconstitution after autologous stem cell transplantation and its effect on outcome has not yet been explored. We conducted this study in a cohort of 295 patients who had undergone autologous transplantation. In order to explore the potential role of immunoglubulin recovery as a dynamic predictor of progression or survival after transplantation, conditional probabilities of progression-free survival and overall survival were estimated according to immunoglobulin recovery at different time points using a landmark approach. One year after transplant, when B-cell reconstitution is expected to be completed, among 169 patients alive and progression free, 88 patients (52%) showed immunoglobulin recovery and 81 (48%) did not. Interestingly, the group with immunoglobulin recovery had a significantly longer median progression-free survival than the group with persistent immunoparesis (median 60.4 vs. 27.9 months, respectively; Hazard Ratio: 0.45, 95%Confidence Interval: 0.31–0.66; P<0.001), and improved overall survival (11.3 vs. 7.3 years; Hazard Ratio: 0.45, 95%Confidence Interval: 0.27–0.74; P=0.002). Furthermore, the percentage of normal plasma cells detected by flow cytometry in the bone marrow assessed at day 100 after transplantation was associated with the immunoglobulin recovery at that time and may predict immunoglobulin recovery in the subsequent months: nine months and one year. In conclusion, the recovery of polyclonal immunoglobulins one year after autologous transplantation in myeloma patients is an independent long-term predictor marker for progression and survival.

Multiple myeloma is a heterogeneous disease whose pathogenesis has not been completely elucidated. Although B-cell receptors play a crucial role in myeloma pathogenesis, the impact of clonal immunoglobulin heavy-chain features in the outcome has not been extensively explored. Here we present the characterization of complete heavychain gene rearrangements in 413 myeloma patients treated in Spanish trials, including 113 patients characterized by next-generation sequencing. Compared to the normal B-cell repertoire, gene selection was biased in myeloma, with significant overrepresentation of IGHV3, IGHD2 and IGHD3, as well as IGHJ4 gene groups. Hypermutation was high in our patients (median: 8.8%). Interestingly, regarding patients who are not candidates for transplantation, a high hypermutation rate (≥7%) and the use of IGHD2 and IGHD3 groups were associated with improved prognostic features and longer survival rates in the univariate analyses. Multivariate analysis revealed prolonged progression-free survival rates for patients using IGHD2/IGHD3 groups (HR: 0.552, 95% CI: 0.361−0.845, p = 0.006), as well as prolonged overall survival rates for patients with hypermutation ≥7% (HR: 0.291, 95% CI: 0.137−0.618, p = 0.001). Our results provide new insights into the molecular characterization of multiple myeloma, highlighting the need to evaluate some of these clonal rearrangement characteristics as new potential prognostic markers.