Given the limited effectiveness of strategies based solely on vector control to reduce dengue virus (DENV) transmission, it is expected that an effective vaccine could play a pivotal role in reducing the global disease burden of dengue. Of several dengue vaccines under development, Dengvaxia® from Sanofi Pasteur recently became the first to become licensed in select countries and to achieve WHO recommendation for use in certain settings, despite the fact that a number of uncertainties about its profile complicate projections of its public health impact. We used a stochastic, agent-based model for DENV transmission to perform simulations of the public health impact of dengue vaccines in light of two key uncertainties: (1) "statistical uncertainty" about the numerical value of the vaccine's efficacy against disease, and (2) "biological uncertainty" about the extent to which its efficacy against disease derives from the amelioration of symptoms, blocking of DENV infection, or some combination thereof. Simulations of a generic dengue vaccine showed that the proportion of disease episodes averted following 20 years of routine vaccination of nine-year olds at 80% coverage was sensitive to both the numerical value of vaccine efficacy and to the extent to which efficacy derives from blocking of DENV infection. Simulations of a vaccine resembling Dengvaxia® took into account that vaccine trial results substantially reduced statistical uncertainty but did not address biological uncertainty, resulting in the proportion of disease episodes averted being more sensitive to biological uncertainty than to statistical uncertainty. Taken together, our results indicate limitations associated with the use of symptomatic disease as the primary endpoint of dengue vaccine trials and highlight the importance of considering multiple forms of uncertainty in projections of a vaccine's public health impact.
BACKGROUND Here we report the residual efficacy of the neonicotinoid insecticide clothianidin against pyrethroid‐resistant Aedes aegypti. We first conducted a range‐finding evaluation of clothianidin on three different substrates (wall, wood, cloth) using three doses (100, 300 and 600 mg a.i. m−2) and conducting World Health Organization (WHO) cone bioassays to assess acute (24 h) and delayed (up to 7 days) mortality. In experimental houses located in Merida (Mexico) and using free‐flying pyrethroid‐resistant Ae. aegypti females, we quantified the acute and delayed mortality after a 24‐h exposure to the targeted indoor residual spraying (TIRS) of two clothianidin doses (100 and 300 mg a.i. m−2). RESULTS Range‐finding studies with WHO cones showed low (<50%) acute mortality for all surfaces, doses and times post spraying. Delayed mortality was higher, with average values above or close to the 60% mark (and 95% confidence interval estimates crossing 80% for the 600 mg a.i. m−2 dose). In experimental houses, a similar low acute mortality was quantified (range of mortality across 12 months was 2–44% for 100 mg a.i. m−2 and 8–61% for 300 mg a.i/m2). However, delayed mortality showed a strong effect of clothianidin on free‐flying Ae. aegypti, with values above 80% up to 7 months post‐TIRS. CONCLUSION Novel residual insecticide molecules have a promising outlook for Ae. aegypti control and can contribute to the expansion and adoption of TIRS in urban areas. clothianidin can contribute to the control of resistant Ae. aegypti and provide residual control for up to 7 months after application. © 2022 Society of Chemical Industry.
SummaryBackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has induced unprecedented reductions in human mobility and social contacts throughout the world. Because dengue virus (DENV) transmission is strongly driven by human mobility, behavioral changes associated with the pandemic have been hypothesized to impact dengue incidence. By discouraging human contact, COVID-19 control measures have also disrupted dengue vector control interventions, the most effective of which require entry into homes.MethodWe used an agent-based model with a realistic treatment of human mobility and vector control to investigate how and why dengue incidence could differ under a lockdown scenario with a proportion of the population sheltered at home.ResultWe found that a lockdown in which 70% of the population sheltered at home led to a small average increase in cumulative DENV infections of up to 10%, depending on the time of year lockdown occurred. Lockdown had a more pronounced effect on the spatial distribution of DENV infections, with higher incidence under lockdown in regions with high mosquito abundance. Transmission was also more focused in homes following lockdown. The proportion of people infected in their own home rose from 54% under normal conditions to 66% under lockdown, and the household secondary attack rate rose from 0.109 to 0.128, a 17% increase. When we considered that lockdown measures could disrupt regular, city-wide vector control campaigns, the increase in incidence was more pronounced than with lockdown alone, especially if lockdown occurred at the optimal time for vector control.DiscussionOur results indicate that an unintended outcome of COVID-19 control measures may be to adversely alter the epidemiology of dengue. This observation has important implications for an improved understanding of dengue epidemiology and effective application of dengue vector control. When coordinating public health responses during a syndemic, it is important to monitor multiple infections and understand that an intervention against one disease may exacerbate another.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.