Trends in the vertical displacement (i.e. uplift or subsidence) of the Aegean Sea coastal zone have been assessed by comparing observational data with those derived from the predictive glacio-hydro-isostatic model of Lambeck and Purcell (2005) for a period spanning from the Mesolithic to the late Roman times. The data base comprises published studies that use both geomorphological (with associated biological material) and archaeological sea level indicators/markers. Localities demonstrating uplift of high amplitude were detected in front of the Hellenic Arc (Antikythira, Crete, Rhodes, Nisyros) and in the northeast Aegean region (Thrace), whilst areas experiencing tectonic subsidence were mainly observed in the central Aegean region which is characterized by an extensional tectonic domain. However, regional-scale tectonic particularities have caused uplift in parts of the west and east coast of central Aegean. Tectonically ‘stable’ sites can be found in the Cyclades Plateau, however, this is due to a balance between uplifting and subsiding movements. Sediment compaction and sediment loading may have affected districts with high sedimentation rates such as the Thessaloniki Plain-Thermaikos Gulf (NW Aegean). Finally, tectonic fragmentation of the coastal area in Minor Asia is responsible for localised uplifting and subsiding events.
The Axios River delta and the Inner Thermaikos Gulf coastal zone have experienced a long period of human interventions during the past 100 years. A post-evaluation of long run coastal zone changes under the Drivers-Pressures-State-Impacts-Response (DPSIR) conceptual framework is presented. The DPSIR approach is then used to project out into possible futures in order to connect with policy and management options proposed for the improvement of the current conditions and the achievement of sustainable development, in the coastal zone. Socio-economic driving forces with their origins in the end of the 19th century have generated numerous pressures in the coastal environment that changed the state of the environment. In the first part of the last century, there was no coupling between change of state and policy. Due to increasing environmental awareness, a coupling became more apparent over the last thirty years. Human interventions include river route realignment, extensive drainage of the plains, irrigation network, roads and dam constructions. The consequences were positive for the economic development of the area, human health, and navigation for the port of Thessaloniki. In contrast, the manipulation and over-use of natural resources has led to a reduction of wetlands, biodiversity loss, stress on freshwater supplies, and subsidence of coastal areas, aquifer salinization, and rapid coastal erosion. Three plausible future scenarios are utilised in order to investigate the implications of this environmental change process and possible socio-economic consequences.
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