This paper presents an application and extension of multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods to account for stochastic input variables. More in particular, a comparative study is carried out among well-known and widely-applied methods in MCDM, when applied to the reference problem of the selection of wind turbine support structures for a given deployment location. Along with data from industrial experts, six deterministic MCDM methods are studied, so as to determine the best alternative among the available options, assessed against selected criteria with a view toward assigning confidence levels to each option. Following an overview of the literature around MCDM problems, the best practice implementation of each method is presented aiming to assist stakeholders and decision-makers to support decisions in real-world applications, where many and often conflicting criteria are present within uncertain environments. The outcomes of this research highlight that more sophisticated methods, such as technique for the order of preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) and Preference Ranking Organization method for enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE), better predict the optimum design alternative.
This research develops a framework to assist wind energy developers to select the optimum deployment site of a wind farm by considering the Round 3 available zones in the UK. The framework includes optimization techniques, decision-making methods and experts’ input in order to support investment decisions. Further, techno-economic evaluation, life cycle costing (LCC) and physical aspects for each location are considered along with experts’ opinions to provide deeper insight into the decision-making process. A process on the criteria selection is also presented and seven conflicting criteria are being considered for implementation in the technique for the order of preference by similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS) method in order to suggest the optimum location that was produced by the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGAII). For the given inputs, Seagreen Alpha, near the Isle of May, was found to be the most probable solution, followed by Moray Firth Eastern Development Area 1, near Wick, which demonstrates by example the effectiveness of the newly introduced framework that is also transferable and generic. The outcomes are expected to help stakeholders and decision makers to make better informed and cost-effective decisions under uncertainty when investing in offshore wind energy in the UK.
This paper compares the three state-of-the-art algorithms when applied to a real-world case of the wind energy sector. Optimum locations are suggested for a wind farm by considering only Round 3 zones around the UK. The problem comprises of some of the most important technoeconomic life cycle cost-related factors, which are modelled using the physical aspects of each wind farm location (i.e., the wind speed, distance from the ports, and water depth), the wind turbine size, and the number of turbines. The model is linked to NSGA II, NSGA III, and SPEA 2 algorithms, to conduct an optimisation search. The performance of these three algorithms is demonstrated and analysed, so as to assess their effectiveness in the investment decision-making process in the wind sector, more importantly, for Round 3 zones. The results are subject to the specifics of the underlying life cycle cost model.
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