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BackgroundLow dose dexamethasone demonstrated clinical improvement in patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) needing oxygen therapy; however, evidence on the efficacy of high dose of dexamethasone is limited.MethodsWe performed a randomised, open-label, controlled trial involving hospitalised patients with confirmed COVID-19 pneumonia needing oxygen therapy. Patients were randomly assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive low dose dexamethasone (6 mg once daily for 10 days) or high dose dexamethasone (20 mg once daily for 5 days, followed by 10 mg once daily for additional 5 days). The primary outcome was clinical worsening within 11 days since randomisation. Secondary outcomes included 28-day mortality, time to recovery, and clinical status at day 5, 11, 14 and 28 on an ordinal scale ranging from 1 (discharged) to 7 (death).ResultsA total of 200 patients (mean (sd) age, 64 (14) years; 62% male) were enrolled. Thirty-two patients of 102 (31.4%) enrolled in the low dose group and 16 of 98 (16.3%) in the high dose group showed clinical worsening within 11 days since randomisation (rate ratio, 0.427; 95% CI, 0.216–0.842; p=0.014). The 28-day mortality was 5.9% in the low dose group and 6.1% in the high dose group (p=0.844). There was no significant difference in time to recovery, and in the 7-point ordinal scale at day 5, 11, 14 and 28.ConclusionsAmong hospitalised COVID-19 patients needing oxygen therapy, high dose of dexamethasone reduced clinical worsening within 11 days after randomisation as compared with low dose.

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The prognosis of a patient with COVID-19 pneumonia is uncertain. Our objective was to establish a predictive model of disease progression to facilitate early decision-making. A retrospective study was performed of patients admitted with COVID-19 pneumonia, classified as severe (admission to the intensive care unit, mechanic invasive ventilation, or death) or non-severe. A predictive model based on clinical, laboratory, and radiological parameters was built. The probability of progression to severe disease was estimated by logistic regression analysis. Calibration and discrimination (receiver operating characteristics curves and AUC) were assessed to determine model performance. During the study period 1152 patients presented with SARS-CoV-2 infection, of whom 229 (19.9%) were admitted for pneumonia. During hospitalization, 51 (22.3%) progressed to severe disease, of whom 26 required ICU care (11.4); 17 (7.4%) underwent invasive mechanical ventilation, and 32 (14%) died of any cause. Five predictors determined within 24 h of admission were identified: Diabetes, Age, Lymphocyte count, SaO2, and pH (DALSH score). The prediction model showed a good clinical performance, including discrimination (AUC 0.87 CI 0.81, 0.92) and calibration (Brier score = 0.11). In total, 0%, 12%, and 50% of patients with severity risk scores ≤ 5%, 6–25%, and > 25% exhibited disease progression, respectively. A risk score based on five factors predicts disease progression and facilitates early decision-making according to prognosis.