Land cover changes (LCC) affect the water balance (WB), changing surface runoff (SurfQ), evapotranspiration (ET), groundwater (GW) regimes, and streamflow (Q). The Tapajós Basin (southeastern Amazon) has experienced LCC over the last 40 years, with increasing LCC rates projected for the near future. Several studies have addressed the effects of climate changes on the region's hydrology, but few have explored the effects of LCC on its hydrological regime. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to model the LCC effects on the hydrology of the Upper Crepori River Basin (medium Tapajós Basin), using historical and projected LCC based on conservation policies (GOV_2050) and on the "Business as Usual" trend (BAU_2050). LCC that occurred from 1973 to 2012, increased Q by 2.5%, without noticeably altering the average annual WB. The future GOV_2050 and BAU_2050 scenarios increased SurfQ by 238.87% and 300.90%, and Q by 2.53% and 2.97%, respectively, and reduced GW by 4.00% and 5.21%, and ET by 2.07% and 2.43%, respectively. Results suggest that the increase in deforestation will intensify floods and low-flow events, and that the conservation policies considered in the GOV_2050 scenario may still compromise the region's hydrology at a comparable level to that of the BAU_2050.

Accelerated land use changes in the Brazilian Amazonian region over the last four decades have raised questions about potential consequences for local hydrology. Under the hypothesis of a lack of frontier governance, projections of future changes in the Amazon basin suggest that 20-30% or more of this basin could be deforested in the next 40 years. This could trigger a cascade of negative impacts on water resources. In this study, we examined how a future conversion of the forest into pasture would influence streamflow and water balance components by using a conceptual and semi-distributed hydrological model in a large (142,000 km 2) forested basin: specifically, the Iriri River basin in the Brazilian Amazon. The results showed that the land use change could substantially alter the water balance components of the originally forested basin. For example, an increase of over 57% in pasture areas increased a simulated annual streamflow by~6.5% and had a significant impact on evapotranspiration, surface runoff, and percolation. Our findings emphasize the importance of protected areas for conservation strategies in the Brazilian Amazonian region.