This analysis makes use of economic forecasts for 2020 issued by the European Commission in Autumn 2019 and Spring 2020, and of a counterfactual under a no-policy change assumption, to analyse the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on EU households´ income. Additionally, our analysis assesses the cushioning effect of discretionary fiscal policy measures taken by the EU Member States. We find that the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to affect significantly households’ disposable income in the EU, with lower income households being more severely hit. However, our results show that due to policy intervention, the impact of the crisis is expected to be similar to the one experienced during the 2008–2009 financial crisis. In detail, our results indicate that discretionary fiscal policy measures will play a significant cushioning role, reducing the size of the income loss (from −9.3% to −4.3% for the average equivalised disposable income), its regressivity and mitigating the poverty impact of the pandemic. We conclude that policy interventions are therefore instrumental in cushioning against the impact of the crisis on inequality and poverty.
In this paper, a New-Keynesian DSGE model for a small open economy integrated in a monetary union is developed and estimated for the Portuguese economy, using a Bayesian approach. Estimates for some key structural parameters are obtained and a set of exercises exploring the model's statistical and economic properties are performed. A survey on the main events and literature associated with DSGE models that motivated this study is also provided, as well as a comprehensive discussion of the Bayesian estimation and model validation techniques applied. The model features five types of agents namely households, firms, aggregators, the rest of the world and the government, and includes a number of shocks and frictions, which enable a closer matching of the short-run properties of the data and a more realistic short-term adjustment to shocks. It is assumed from the outset that monetary policy is defined by the union's central bank and that the domestic economy's size is negligible, relative to the union's one, and therefore its specific economic fluctuations have no influence on the union's macroeconomic aggregates and monetary policy. An endogenous risk-premium is considered, allowing for deviations of the domestic economy's interest rate from the union's one. Furthermore it is assumed that all trade and financial flows are performed with countries belonging to the union, which implies that the nominal exchange rate is irrevocably set to unity.
This study assesses the macroeconomic impacts of increasing competition in the nontradable goods and labour markets in Portugal. We lean on evidence that the maintenance of low competition in these markets may have contributed to the recent poor performance of the Portuguese economy. The analysis is performed using PESSOA, a dynamic general equilibrium model for a small-open economy integrated in a monetary union, featuring Blanchard-Yaari households, a multi-sectoral production structure and a number of nominal and real rigidities.We conclude that measures aimed at increasing competition in the Portuguese non-tradable goods and labour markets could induce important international competitiveness gains and be valuable instruments in promoting necessary adjustments within the monetary union framework. However, in the short run, real interest rates are likely to increase temporarily, driving consumption and output temporarily downwards.
This paper provides a detailed empirical assessment of the evolution of income inequality and the redistributive effects of the tax and transfer system following the 2007-2008 crisis. It focuses on the U.S. case, drawing on data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) for the period 2007-2012. In contrast with most existing studies, it uses a wide range of inequality indicators and looks in detail at several sections of the income distribution, allowing for a clearer picture of the heterogeneous consequences of the crisis. Furthermore, it analyzes the contribution of different components of the tax and transfer system, beyond its overall cushioning effect, which allows for a more refined assessment of its effectiveness. Results show that although the crisis implied income losses across the whole income distribution, the burden was disproportionately born by low-to middle-income groups. Income losses experienced by richer households were relatively modest and transitory, while those experienced by poorer households were not only strong but also highly persistent. The tax and transfer system, particularly cash transfers, had a crucial role in taming the increase in income inequality during the Great Recession (GR) and in the immediate aftermath of the crisis. After 2010, however, its effect became weaker and income inequality experienced a new surge. The findings of this paper contribute to a better understanding of the distributional consequences of aggregate crises and the role of tax and transfer policies in stabilizing the income distribution in a crisis aftermath.
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