Background The U.S. Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) recommends against routine screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) in adequately screened elderly aged over 75. The USPSTF did not address the appropriateness of screening in elderly aged over 75 without prior screening. Objective To determine up to what age CRC screening should be considered in unscreened elderly with no, moderate, and severe comorbidity and to determine which test is indicated at what age. Design Microsimulation modeling study. Data Sources Derived from the literature. Target Populations Unscreened elderly aged 76, 77, (...), and 90 with no, moderate, and severe comorbidity. Time Horizon Lifetime. Perspective Societal. Interventions Once-only colonoscopy, sigmoidoscopy, and fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening. Outcome Measures CRC cases prevented, CRC deaths prevented, life-years gained, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, costs, and costs per QALY gained. Results of Base-Case Analysis In unscreened elderly with no, moderate, and severe comorbidity, CRC screening was cost-effective up to age 86, 83, and 80, respectively. In unscreened elderly with no comorbidity, colonoscopy screening was most effective and still cost-effective up to age 83; sigmoidoscopy screening was indicated at age 84; and FIT screening was indicated at ages 85 and 86. In unscreened elderly with moderate (severe) comorbidity, colonoscopy screening was indicated up to age 80 (77); sigmoidoscopy screening was indicated at age 81 (78); and FIT screening was indicated at ages 82 and 83 (79 and 80). Results of Sensitivity Analyses Results were most sensitive to lowering the threshold for the willingness-to-pay per QALY gained from $100,000 to $50,000. Limitation We only considered cohorts at average risk for CRC. Conclusions In unscreened elderly with no, moderate, and severe comorbidity, whose physical condition allows a colonoscopy, CRC screening should be considered well beyond age 75: up to age 86, 83, and 80, respectively. At most ages, colonoscopy screening is indicated. Primary Funding Source The U.S. National Cancer Institute.
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