A detailed delineation of flood-prone areas over large regions represents a challenge that cannot be easily solved with today's resources. The main limitations lie in algorithms and hardware, but also costs, scarcity and sparsity of data and our incomplete knowledge of how inundation events occur in different river floodplains. We showcase the implementation of a data-driven web application for regional analyses and detailed (i.e., tens of meters) mapping of floodplains, based on (a) the synthesis of hydrogeomorphic features into a morphological descriptor and (b) its classification to delineate flood-prone areas. We analysed the skill of the descriptor and the performance of the mapping method for European rivers. The web application can be effectively used for delineating flood-prone areas, reproducing the reference flood maps with a classification skill of 88.59% for the 270 major river basins analysed across Europe and 84.23% for the 64 sub-catchments of the Po River.

A detailed delineation of flood-prone areas over large regions represents a challenge that cannot be easily solved with today’s resources. The main limitations lie in algorithms and hardware, but also costs, scarcity and sparsity of data and our incomplete knowledge of how inundation events occur in different river floodplains. We showcase the implementation of a data-driven web application for regional analyses and detailed (i.e., tens of meters) mapping of floodplains, based on (a) the synthesis of hydrogeomorphic features into a morphological descriptor and (b) its classification to delineate flood-prone areas. We analysed the skill of the descriptor and the performance of the mapping method for European rivers. The web application can be effectively used for delineating flood-prone areas, reproducing the reference flood maps with a classification skill of 88.59% for the 270 major river basins analysed across Europe and 84.23% for the 64 sub-catchments of the Po River.

The increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events caused by the changing climate (e.g., cloudbursts, rainstorms, heavy rainfall, hail, heavy snow), combined with the high population density and concentration of assets, makes urban areas particularly vulnerable to pluvial flooding. Hence, assessing their vulnerability under current and future climate scenarios is of paramount importance. Detailed hydrologic-hydraulic numerical modeling is resource intensive and therefore scarcely suitable for performing consistent hazard assessments across large urban settlements. Given the steadily increasing availability of LiDAR (Light Detection And Ranging) high-resolution DEMs (Digital Elevation Models), several studies highlighted the potential of fast-processing DEM-based methods, such as the Hierarchical Filling-&-Spilling or Puddle-to-Puddle Dynamic Filling-&-Spilling Algorithms (abbreviated herein as HFSAs). We develop a fast-processing HFSA, named Safer_RAIN, that enables mapping of pluvial flooding in large urban areas by accounting for spatially distributed rainfall input and infiltration processes through a pixel-based Green-Ampt model. We present the first applications of the algorithm to two case studies in Northern Italy. Safer_RAIN output is compared against ground evidence and detailed output from a two-dimensional (2D) hydrologic and hydraulic numerical model (overall index of agreement between Safer_RAIN and 2D benchmark model: sensitivity and specificity up to 71% and 99%, respectively), highlighting potential and limitations of the proposed algorithm for identifying pluvial flood-hazard hotspots across large urban environments.

This study proposes a climate service named Smart Climate Hydropower Tool (SCHT) and designed as a hybrid forecast system for supporting decision-making in a context of hydropower production. SCHT is technically designed to make use of information from state-of-art seasonal forecasts provided by the Copernicus Climate Data Store (CDS) combined with a range of different machine learning algorithms to perform the seasonal forecast of the accumulated inflow discharges to the reservoir of hydropower plants. The machine learning algorithms considered include support vector regression, Gaussian processes, long short-term memory, non-linear autoregressive neural networks with exogenous inputs, and a deep-learning neural networks model. Each machine learning model is trained over past decades datasets of recorded data, and forecast performances are validated and evaluated using separate test sets with reference to the historical average of discharge values and simpler multiparametric regressions. Final results are presented to the users through a user-friendly web interface developed from a tied connection with end-users in an effective co-design process. Methods are tested for forecasting the accumulated seasonal river discharges up to six months in advance for two catchments in Colombia, South America. Results indicate that the machine learning algorithms that make use of a complex and/or recurrent architecture can better simulate the temporal dynamic behaviour of the accumulated river discharge inflow to both case study reservoirs, thus rendering SCHT a useful tool in providing information for water resource managers in better planning the allocation of water resources for different users and for hydropower plant managers when negotiating power purchase contracts in competitive energy markets.

No abstract