Social distancing remains an important strategy to combat the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States. However, the impacts of specific state-level policies on mobility and subsequent COVID-19 case trajectories have not been completely quantified. Using anonymized and aggregated mobility data from opted-in Google users, we found that state-level emergency declarations resulted in a 9.9% reduction in time spent away from places of residence. Implementation of one or more social distancing policies resulted in an additional 24.5% reduction in mobility the following week, and subsequent shelter-in-place mandates yielded an additional 29.0% reduction. Decreases in mobility were associated with substantial reductions in case growth two to four weeks later. For example, a 10% reduction in mobility was associated with a 17.5% reduction in case growth two weeks later. Given the continued reliance on social distancing policies to limit the spread of COVID-19, these results may be helpful to public health officials trying to balance infection control with the economic and social consequences of these policies.

Background Social distancing have been widely used to mitigate community spread of SARS-CoV-2. We sought to quantify the impact of COVID-19 social distancing policies across 27 European counties in spring 2020 on population mobility and the subsequent trajectory of disease. Methods We obtained data on national social distancing policies from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and aggregated and anonymized mobility data from Google. We used a pre-post comparison and two linear mixed-effects models to first assess the relationship between implementation of national policies and observed changes in mobility, and then to assess the relationship between changes in mobility and rates of COVID-19 infections in subsequent weeks. Results Compared to a pre-COVID baseline, Spain saw the largest decrease in aggregate population mobility (~70%), as measured by the time spent away from residence, while Sweden saw the smallest decrease (~20%). The largest declines in mobility were associated with mandatory stay-at-home orders, followed by mandatory workplace closures, school closures, and non-mandatory workplace closures. While mandatory shelter-in-place orders were associated with 16.7% less mobility (95% CI: -23.7% to -9.7%), non-mandatory orders were only associated with an 8.4% decrease (95% CI: -14.9% to -1.8%). Large-gathering bans were associated with the smallest change in mobility compared with other policy types. Changes in mobility were in turn associated with changes in COVID-19 case growth. For example, a 10% decrease in time spent away from places of residence was associated with 11.8% (95% CI: 3.8%, 19.1%) fewer new COVID-19 cases. Discussion This comprehensive evaluation across Europe suggests that mandatory stay-at-home orders and workplace closures had the largest impacts on population mobility and subsequent COVID-19 cases at the onset of the pandemic. With a better understanding of policies’ relative performance, countries can more effectively invest in, and target, early nonpharmacological interventions.

No abstract

No abstract

No abstract

Research Objective Nonpharmacological policies aimed at improving physical distancing, such as shelter in place orders or gathering bans are a central strategy used to mitigate disease spread, particularly in the early life‐course of a pandemic. We sought to assess the relationship between different types of early social distancing policies implemented across Europe, how they related to changes in population mobility and subsequent COVID‐19 case growth. Study Design Data on national social distancing policies were obtained from the Oxford COVID‐19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT). For each European country we defined index dates based on the implementation of the country's first social distancing policy. We then compared the value of each mobility metric in the week after the index date versus the 7‐day period extending from 9 to 2 days prior to the index date. We included a two‐day washout period given the volatility that typically precedes these orders. For mobility, each country was compared to itself over time. We employed a pre‐post comparison and two linear mixed‐effects models to first assess the relationship between policies and observed changes in mobility, and to assess the relationship between changes in mobility and rates of COVID‐19 infections in subsequent weeks. Aggregated and anonymized mobility data was obtained from Google. This data is similar to publicly accessible “Community Mobility Reports,” with the addition of novel variables, such as relative change in the average number of hours individuals spent away from their primary place of residence. Population Studied Our analytic sample included 6075 country‐day observations across 27 European countries. Principal Findings Spain saw the largest mobility decrease from the pre‐COVID baseline, as measured by the time spent away from residence, with a decline in aggregate mobility of nearly 70%. Sweden had the smallest decrease with approximately a 20% decline from baseline at the end of the study period (April 12th 2020). Policies associated with the largest decline in mobility were: mandatory stay‐at‐home orders, followed by mandatory workplace closures, school closures and non‐mandatory workplace closures. While mandatory shelter‐in‐place orders were associated with 16.7% less mobility (95% CI: −23.7% to −9.7%), non‐mandatory orders were only associated with an 8.4% decrease (95% CI: −14.9% to −1.8%). Large‐gathering bans saw the least change in mobility compared with other policy types. We, in turn, found a strong link between changes in mobility and changes in COVID‐19 case growth. Overall, a 10% decrease in the average time spent away from places of residence was associated with 11.8% (95% CI: 3.8%, 19.1%) fewer new cases two weeks later. A more pronounced 50% decrease resulted in 46.6% fewer cases two weeks later (95% CI: 17.5%, 65.4%). Conclusions Social distancing policies had a significant but heterogeneous impact on mobility. Across countries studied, relative change in time spent away from home was positively associated with slowed c...