The issue of economic security is becoming an increasingly urgent one. The purpose of this article is to develop a method for assessing threats to the economic security of the Russian region. This method is based on step-by-step actions: first of all, choosing an element of the region’s economic security system and collecting its descriptive indicators; then grouping indicators by admittance-process-result categories and building hypotheses about their influence; testing hypotheses using a statistical package and choosing the most significant connections, which can pose a threat to the economic security of the region; thereafter ranking regions by the level of threats and developing further recommendations. The importance of this method is that with the help of grouping regions (territory of a country) based on proposed method, it is possible to develop individual economic security monitoring tools. As a result, the efficiency of that country’s region can be higher. In this work, the proposed method was tested in the framework of public procurement in Russia. A total of 14 indicators of procurement activity were collected for each region of the Russian Federation for the period from 2014 to 2018. Regression models were built on the basis of the grouped indicators. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Estimation was used. As a result of pairwise regression models analysis, we have defined four significant relationships between public procurement indicators. There are positive connections between contracts that require collateral and the percentage of tolerances, between the number of bidders and the number of regular suppliers, between the number of bidders and the average price drop, and between the number of purchases made from a single supplier and the number of contracts concluded without reduction. It was determined that the greatest risks for the system were associated with the connection between competition and budget savings. It was proposed to rank analyzed regions into four groups: ineffective government procurement, effective government procurement, and government procurement that threatens the system of economic security of the region, that is, high competition with low savings and low competition with high savings. Based on these groups, individual economic security monitoring tools can be developed for each region.
Subject. In Russia, public procurement serves as a mechanism for the government to regulate the economy. Currently, there are diverse views on its efficiency. However, neither efficiency evaluation methods shed the light on the relationship of important indicators, such as competition and economy, which shape the regional economic security.
Objectives. We herein evaluate the competition and budgetary savings, assessing metrics of the average number of participants and a median drop in the price for a purchase in the region with reference to the regional economic security.
Methods. The study relies upon general scientific and mathematical-statistical methods.
Results. A growth in the average number of participants per a purchase is showed to have a positive impact on the median drop in the price, that is, the competition contributes to savings. Based on Tenderplan data, the Russian regions were dynamically analyzed from 2014 through 2018 in terms of public procurement efficiency. There are sustainably well-being regions and those that threaten to the economic security or simply demonstrating inefficient operations.
Conclusions. Controllers of public procurement in regions should especially monitor suspicious regions, thus contributing to possible improvements in the area. The findings will help further research to evaluate the relationship of public procurement indicators and find ways for regulating them.
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