Systems for threat analysis enable users to understand the nature and behavior of threats and to undertake a deeper analysis for detailed exploration of threat profile and risk estimation. Models for threat analysis require significant resources to be developed and are often relevant to limited application tasks. This paper investigated the implicit and explicit uncertainty assessments to be taken into account for threat analysis systems to be effective for providing a relevant threat characterization. The intent of this paper is twofold. The first is to present and discuss an approach to define a model for cyber threats within a simplified expert model and to translate it into a Bayesian network as a tool for the development of practical scenarios for cyber threats analysis. The second is to address the question of assessing the Bayesian network build and its intrinsic knowledge representation model and to show how modeling decisions impact the outcome of the system. The paper describes the construction of an expert model and the corresponding BN to analyze cyber threats, investigates various types of induced uncertainty with the URREF criteria simplicity and expressiveness and implements an assessment procedure to evaluate the overall approach.
In highly dynamic and heterogeneous environments, providing commanders with decision making support requires a through understanding of processes involved and the development of underlying knowledge models upon which reasoning mechanisms can be based. This paper presents the construction of ONTO-CIF, a formal ontology created to improve intelligence analysis. ONTO-CIF was developed by following a methodology based on textual documents, which allows us to accomplish a satisfactory accuracy level in terms of domain coverage while remaining on a manageable scale size. The paper also illustrates several semantic-based scenarios to support intelligence analysis, a central task of the military application field.
The digital era arrives with a whole set of disruptive technologies that creates both risk and opportunity for open sources analysis. Although the sheer quantity of online conversations makes social media a huge source of information, their analysis is still a challenging task and many of traditional methods and research methodologies for data mining are not fit for purpose. Social data mining revolves around subjective content analysis, which deals with the computational processing of texts conveying people's evaluations, beliefs, attitudes and emotions. Opinion mining and sentiment analysis are the main paradigm of social media exploration and both concepts are often interchangeable. This paper investigates the use of appraisal categories to explore data gleaned for social media, going beyond the limitations of traditional sentiment and opinion-oriented approaches. Categories of appraisal are grounded on cognitive foundations of the appraisal theory, according to which people's emotional response are based on their own evaluative judgments or appraisals of situations, events or objects. A formal model is developed to describe and explain the way language is used in the cyberspace to evaluate, express mood and subjective states, construct personal standpoints and manage interpersonal interactions and relationships. A general processing framework is implemented to illustrate how the model is used to analyze a collection of tweets related to extremist attitudes.
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