BackgroundEpidemic models are being extensively used to understand the main pathways of spread of infectious diseases, and thus to assess control methods. Schools are well known to represent hot spots for epidemic spread; hence, understanding typical patterns of infection transmission within schools is crucial for designing adequate control strategies. The attention that was given to the 2009 A/H1N1pdm09 flu pandemic has made it possible to collect detailed data on the occurrence of influenza-like illness (ILI) symptoms in two primary schools of Trento, Italy.ResultsThe data collected in the two schools were used to calibrate a discrete-time SIR model, which was designed to estimate the probabilities of influenza transmission within the classes, grades and schools using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We found that the virus was mainly transmitted within class, with lower levels of transmission between students in the same grade and even lower, though not significantly so, among different grades within the schools. We estimated median values of R 0 from the epidemic curves in the two schools of 1.16 and 1.40; on the other hand, we estimated the average number of students infected by the first school case to be 0.85 and 1.09 in the two schools.ConclusionsThe discrepancy between the values of R 0 estimated from the epidemic curve or from the within-school transmission probabilities suggests that household and community transmission played an important role in sustaining the school epidemics. The high probability of infection between students in the same class confirms that targeting within-class transmission is key to controlling the spread of influenza in school settings and, as a consequence, in the general population.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12976-016-0045-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Building from a continuous-time host-parasitoid model introduced by Murdoch et al. (Am Nat 129:263-282, 1987), we study the dynamics of a 2 host-parasitoid model assuming, for the sake of simplicity, that larval stages have a fixed duration. If each host is subjected to density-dependent mortality in its larval stage, we obtain explicit conditions for the existence of an equilibrium where the two host species coexist with the parasitoid. However, if host demography is density-independent, equilibrium coexistence is impossible. If at least one of the 1 host-parasitoid systems has an oscillatory dynamics (which happens under some parameter values), we found, through numerical bifurcation, that coexistence is favoured. Coexistence between the two hosts may occur along a periodic solution even without density-dependence. Models of this type may be relevant for the use of parasitoids as biocontrol agents of insect pests.