Recent observation and modeling-based studies have shown how air quality has been positively affected by the containment measures enforced due to the COVID-19 outbreak. This work aims to analyze Lombardy’s NO2 atmospheric concentration during the spring lockdown. The region of Lombardy is known for having the largest number of residents in Italy and high levels of pollution. It is also the region where the first European confinement measures were imposed by the Italian government. The modeling suite composed of CAMx (Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions) and WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting model) provides the setting to compare the atmospheric NO2 concentration from mid-February to the end of March with a business as usual situation. The main interest in this work is to investigate the response of NO2 atmospheric concentration to increasingly reduced road traffic. We can simulate, for the first time, a real circumstance of progressively reduced mobility, as well as validating it with measured air quality data. Focusing on the city of Milan, we found that the decrease in NO2 concentration reflects progressively reduced traffic contraction. In the case of a large traffic abatement (71%), the concentration level is reduced by one third. We also find that industrial activities have a relevant impact on NO2 atmospheric concentration, especially in the provinces of Brescia and Bergamo. This study provides an overview of how incisive policies must be implemented to achieve the set environmental targets and protect human health.
A new sensitivity analysis with the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions (CAMx) using a traditional two-product scheme (SOAP) and the newer Volatility Basis Set (VBS) algorithm for organic aerosol (OA) calculations is presented. The sensitivity simulations include the default versions of the SOAP and VBS schemes, as well as new parametrizations for the VBS scheme to calculate emissions and volatility distributions of semi- and intermediate-volatile organic compounds. The focus of the simulations is the summer season (May to July 2013), in order to quantify the sensitivity of the model in a period with relatively large photochemical activity. In addition to the model sensitivity, we validate the results with ad hoc OA measurements obtained from aerosol mass spectrometers at two monitoring sites. Unlike winter cases previously published, the comparison with experimental data showed limited sensitivity to total OA amount, with an estimated increase in OA concentrations limited to a few tenths of µg m−3, for both the primary and secondary components. We show that the lack of pronounced sensitivity is related to the effect of the new parametrizations on different emissions sectors. Furthermore, the minor sensitivity to the new parametrizations could be related to the greater partitioning of OA towards the gaseous phase in the summer period, thus reducing the organic fraction in the aerosol phase.
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