Real-time estimation of eruptive source parameters during explosive volcanic eruptions is a major challenge in terms of hazard evaluation and risk assessment as these inputs are essential for tephra dispersal models to forecast the impact of ash plumes and tephra deposits. In this aim, taking advantage of the 23.5 cm wavelength Doppler radar (VOLDORAD 2B) monitoring Etna volcano, we analyzed 47 paroxysms produced between 2011 and 2015, characterized by lava fountains generating tephra plumes that reached up to 15 km a.s.l. Range gating of the radar beam allows the identification of the active summit craters in real-time, no matter the meteorological conditions. The radar echoes help to mark (i) the onset of the paroxysm when unstable lava fountains, taking over Strombolian activity, continuously supply the developing tephra plume, then (ii) the transition to stable fountains (climax), and (iii) the end of the climax, therefore providing paroxysm durations. We developed a new methodology to retrieve in real-time a Mass Eruption Rate (MER) proxy from the radar echo power and maximum Doppler velocity measured near the emission source. The increase in MER proxies is found to precede by several minutes the time variations of plume heights inferred from visible and X-Band radar imagery. A calibration of the MER proxy against ascent models based on observed plume heights leads to radar-derived climax MER from 2.96 × 10 4 to 3.26 × 10 6 kg s −1. The Total Erupted Mass (TEM) of tephra was computed by integrating over beam volumes and paroxysm duration, allowing quantitative comparisons of the relative amounts of emitted tephra among the different paroxysms. When the climactic phase can be identified, it is found to frequently release 76% of the TEM. Calibrated TEMs are found to be larger than those retrieved by satellite and X-band radar observations, deposit analyses, ground-based infrared imagery, or dispersion modeling. Our methodology, potentially applicable to every Doppler radar, provides mass load parameters that represent a powerful all-weather tool for the quantitative monitoring and real-time hazard assessment of tephra plumes at Etna or any other volcano with radar monitoring.

Explosive basaltic eruptions eject a great amount of pyroclastic material into the atmosphere, forming columns rising to several kilometers above the eruptive vent and causing significant disruption to both proximal and distal communities. Here, we analyze data, collected by an X-band polarimetric weather radar and an L-band Doppler fixed-pointing radar, as well as by a thermal infrared (TIR) camera, in relation to lava fountain-fed tephra plumes at the Etna volcano in Italy. We clearly identify a jet, mainly composed of lapilli and bombs mixed with hot gas in the first portion of these volcanic plumes and here called the incandescent jet region (IJR). At Etna and due to the TIR camera configuration, the IJR typically corresponds to the region that saturates thermal images. We find that the IJR is correlated to a unique signature in polarimetric radar data as it represents a zone with a relatively high reflectivity and a low copolar correlation coefficient. Analyzing five recent Etna eruptions occurring in 2013 and 2015, we propose a jet region radar retrieval algorithm (JR3A), based on a decision-tree combining polarimetric X-band observables with L-band radar constraints, aiming at the IJR height detection during the explosive eruptions. The height of the IJR does not exactly correspond to the height of the lava fountain due to a different altitude, potentially reached by lapilli and blocks detected by the X-band weather radar. Nonetheless, it can be used as a proxy of the lava fountain height in order to obtain a first approximation of the exit velocity of the mixture and, therefore, of the mass eruption rate. The comparisons between the JR3A estimates of IJR heights with the corresponding values recovered from TIR imagery, show a fairly good agreement with differences of less than 20% in clear air conditions, whereas the difference between JR3A estimates of IJR height values and those derived from L-band radar data only are greater than 40%. The advantage of using an X-band polarimetric weather radar in an early warning system is that it provides information in all weather conditions. As a matter of fact, we show that JR3A retrievals can also be obtained in cloudy conditions when the TIR camera data cannot be processed.

Abstract. Recent explosive volcanic eruptions recorded worldwide (e.g. Hekla in 2000, Eyjafjallajökull in 2010, Cordón-Caulle in 2011) demonstrated the necessity for a better assessment of the eruption source parameters (ESPs; e.g. column height, mass eruption rate, eruption duration, and total grain-size distribution – TGSD) to reduce the uncertainties associated with the far-travelling airborne ash mass. Volcanological studies started to integrate observations to use more realistic numerical inputs, crucial for taking robust volcanic risk mitigation actions. On 23 November 2013, Etna (Italy) erupted, producing a 10 km height plume, from which two volcanic clouds were observed at different altitudes from satellites (SEVIRI, MODIS). One was retrieved as mainly composed of very fine ash (i.e. PM20), and the second one as made of ice/SO2 droplets (i.e. not measurable in terms of ash mass). An atypical north-easterly wind direction transported the tephra from Etna towards the Calabria and Apulia regions (southern Italy), permitting tephra sampling in proximal (i.e. ∼ 5–25 km from the source) and medial areas (i.e. the Calabria region, ∼ 160 km). A primary TGSD was derived from the field measurement analysis, but the paucity of data (especially related to the fine ash fraction) prevented it from being entirely representative of the initial magma fragmentation. To better constrain the TGSD assessment, we also estimated the distribution from the X-band weather radar data. We integrated the field and radar-derived TGSDs by inverting the relative weighting averages to best fit the tephra loading measurements. The resulting TGSD is used as input for the FALL3D tephra dispersal model to reconstruct the whole tephra loading. Furthermore, we empirically modified the integrated TGSD by enriching the PM20 classes until the numerical results were able to reproduce the airborne ash mass retrieved from satellite data. The resulting TGSD is inverted by best-fitting the field, ground-based, and satellite-based measurements. The results indicate a total erupted mass of 1.2  ×  109 kg, being similar to the field-derived value of 1.3  ×  109 kg, and an initial PM20 fraction between 3.6 and 9.0 wt %, constituting the tail of the TGSD.

9Ash particle terminal settling velocity is an important parameter to measure in order to 10 constrain the internal dynamics and dispersion of volcanic ash plumes and clouds that emplace 11 ash fall deposits from which source eruption conditions are often inferred. Whereas the total 12 Particle Size Distribution (PSD) is the main parameter to constrain terminal velocities, many 13 studies have empirically highlighted the need to consider shape descriptors such as the 14 sphericity to refine ash settling velocity as a function of size. During radar remote sensing 15 measurements of weak volcanic plumes erupted from Stromboli volcano in 2015, an optical 16 disdrometer was used to measure the size and settling velocities of falling ash particles over 17 time, while six ash fallout samples were collected at different distances from the vent. We focus 18 on the implications of the physical parameters of ash for settling velocity measurements and 19 modeling. Two-dimensional sizes and shapes are automatically characterized for a large 20 number of ash particles using an optical morpho-grainsizer MORPHOLOGI G3. Manually 21 sieved ash samples show sorted, relatively coarse PSDs spanning a few microns to 2000 μm 22with modal values between 180-355 μm. Although negligible in mass, a population of fine 23 particles below 100 μm form a distinct PSD with a mode around 5-20 μm. All size distributions 24 are offset compared to the indicated sieve limits. Accordingly, we use the diagonal of the upper 25 mesh sizes as the upper sieve limit. Morphologically, particles show decreasing average form 26 factors with increasing circle-equivalent diameter, the latter being equal to 0.92 times the 27 average size between the length and intermediate axes of ash particles. Average particle 28 densities measured by water pycnometry are 2755 ± 50 kg m -3 and increase slightly from 2645 29 to 2811 kg m -3 with decreasing particle size. The measured settling velocities under laboratory 30 conditions with no wind, < 3.6 m s -1 , are in agreement with the field velocities expected for 31 particles with sizes < 460 μm. The Ganser (1993) empirical model for particle settling velocity 32 is the most consistent with our disdrometer settling velocity results. Converting disdrometer 33 detected size into circle equivalent diameter shows similar PSDs between disdrometer 34 measurements and G3 analyses. This validates volcanological applications of the disdrometer 35 to monitor volcanic ash sizes and settling velocities in real-time with ideal field conditions. We 36 discuss ideal conditions and the measurement limitations. In addition to providing 37 sedimentation rates in-situ, calculated reflectivities can be compared with radar reflectivity 38 measurements inside ash plumes to infer first-order ash plume concentrations. Detailed PSDs 39 and shape parameters may be used to further refine radar-derived mass loading retrievals of the 40 ash plumes. 41 Highlights: 42• An optical disdrometer is used to measure ash sizes and settling velocities at Strombo...

Aggregation of volcanic ash is known to significantly impact sedimentation from volcanic plumes. The study of particle aggregates during tephra fallout is crucial to increase our understanding of both ash aggregation and sedimentation. In this work, we describe key features of ash aggregates and ash sedimentation associated with eleven Vulcanian explosions at Sakurajima Volcano (Japan) based on state-of-the-art sampling techniques. We identified five types of aggregates of both Particle Cluster (PC) and Accretionary Pellet (AP) categories. In particular, we found that PCs and the first and third type of APs can coexist within the same eruption in rainy conditions. We also found that the aerodynamic properties of aggregates (e.g., terminal velocity and density) depend on their type. In addition, grainsize analysis revealed that characteristics of the grainsize distributions (GSDs) of tephra samples correlate with the typology of the aggregates identified. In fact, bimodal GSDs correlate with the presence of cored clusters (PC3) and liquid pellets (AP3), while unimodal GSDs correlate either with the occurrence of ash clusters (PC1) or with the large particles (coarse ash) coated by fine ash (PC2).

Multi-sensor strategies are key to the real-time determination of eruptive source parameters (ESPs) of explosive eruptions necessary to forecast accurately both tephra dispersal and deposition. To explore the capacity of these strategies in various eruptive conditions, we analyze data acquired by two Doppler radars, ground- and satellite-based infrared sensors, one infrasound array, visible video-monitoring cameras as well as data from tephra-fallout deposits associated with a weak and a strong paroxysmal event at Mount Etna (Italy). We find that the different sensors provide complementary observations that should be critically analyzed and combined to provide comprehensive estimates of ESPs. First, all measurements of plume height agree during the strong paroxysmal activity considered, whereas some discrepancies are found for the weak paroxysm due to rapid plume and cloud dilution. Second, the event duration, key to convert the total erupted mass (TEM) in the mass eruption rate (MER) and vice versa, varies depending on the sensor used, providing information on different phases of the paroxysm (i.e., unsteady lava fountaining, lava fountain-fed tephra plume, waning phase associated with plume and cloud expansion in the atmosphere). As a result, TEM and MER derived from different sensors also correspond to the different phases of the paroxysms. Finally, satellite retrievals for grain-size can be combined with radar data to provide a first approximation of total grain-size distribution (TGSD) in near real-time. Such a TGSD shows a promising agreement with the TGSD derived from the combination of satellite data and whole deposit grain-size distribution (WDGSD).

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Ash fallout and volcanic plume dispersion represent critical hazards for local and global human populations for minutes to years after the onset of an eruption. Understanding the key processes governing the sedimentation of ash particles is a major challenge in modern volcanology from modelling and risk management perspectives. Recent experiments predict that sedimentation from eruption clouds rich in fine-grained ash can be driven by convective phenomena in the form of ~100 m to km-scale ash fingers related to the intermittent formation and detaching of ash-rich particle boundary layer. Remote sensing observations of mammatus and cloud veils from numerous eruptions over recent years as well as field observations of spatially discontinuous ash deposits are consistent with this prediction. Indeed, this mode of ash sedimentation is predicted to be the predominant mechanism of fine ash removal for a significant fraction of eruptions in the geological records. Here, we use a novel combination of 3 millimeter-wavelength Doppler radar observations and time series of optical disdrometer data to characterize for the first time in real-time the time-varying structure and sedimentation properties of volcanic ash plumes under steady wind conditions. As a case study, we apply this new method to weak short-lived plumes from Stromboli Volcano. 96% of the disdrometer proximal sedimentation data highlight pulsatory phases of increased sedimentation rate that are 20-60 s apart and characterized by particle size distribution variation with bulk concentrations up to 681 mg/m 3. Radar data also record intermittent periods of higher reflectivity (i.e. a factor of 3 in mass concentration) inside the ash sedimentation interspersed by 30 to 50 s and interpreted as ash fingers crossing the radar beam. From time series of radar signals and groundbased disdrometer measurements, together with simple analog experiments, we develop a conceptual model for intermittent sedimentation from wind-affected ash plumes. In particular, we show that when wind speeds are comparable to or greater than ash settling velocities, the dynamics of wind-driven rolls in ash clouds can govern the production of gravitational instabilities and the occurrence and timing of ash fingers that form descending sediment thermals in turn. This study suggests that ambient wind should affect the maximum size and minimum concentration of ash particles needed to form fingers but also control where and when fingers form at the base of wind-drifted ash plumes. These novel predictions highlight the need for future work aimed at refining our understanding of ash finger formation under windy conditions from the perspectives of in-situ characterization, numerical modelling and risk assessment of fine ash dispersal from the most frequent style of eruptions on Earth. Highlights: • Novel observations of time-dependent ash sedimentation using a 3 mm-wavelength Doppler radar and a ground-based disdrometer. • Wind-induced counter-rotating rolls lead to the formation of ash fingers evolving...